Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood Sit 40-56% Off Highs in Stealth Downturn
Crypto stocks trade 40-56% below highs while the S&P 500 sits near records, a divergence the Kobeissi Letter calls a stealth bear market.
Alphabet shares fell more than 9% after hours after Q3 search ad revenue missed and free cash flow came in at negative $9 billion.
The after-market moves were a study in contrast: Microsoft rose while Alphabet slid, suggesting investors are rewarding AI investment that throws off cash and punishing AI spending that devours it. Alphabet's projection of materially higher capital spending in 2027 feeds into Samsung's view that chip shortages will worsen, a tailwind for chipmakers and data-centre operators even as it drags on Alphabet. The ad miss matters more for the longer term, offering the first hard proof of the widely anticipated threat that AI-generated answers are eroding Google's main advertising business. Pressure is expected on megacap tech sentiment when trading opens, with Amazon's report the next focus.
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Cloud is enjoying explosive growth, but the latest numbers have made clear to investors that AI could be eating into search and that construction costs are now draining Alphabet's cash reserves.
Summary:
After the close, Alphabet's stock fell by more than 9% as the company delivered a shortfall in its main search ad line and showed a much bigger cash drain; heavy spending on AI infrastructure stole the spotlight from another exceptionally strong Google Cloud quarter.
Per LSEG data cited by Reuters, Alphabet recorded roughly $9 billion of negative free cash flow in Q3, while analysts had expected it to be close to flat. That made two consecutive quarters in the red, after about $6 billion was burned in the prior quarter, the first time the measure had gone negative in Alphabet's 22 years as a listed company.
Revenue came to about $127.6 billion, below the roughly $128.2 billion average estimate. Ad sales of around $82 billion also disappointed against an expected $83.4 billion, more than cancelling out a Cloud beat. Adjusted EPS of $2.67 fell short of the $3.02 forecast, and net income attributable to shareholders dropped 25% to roughly $26 billion.
Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said slower-than-expected growth in search ads reflected increased use of AI Mode, the chatbot-like search interface where Google continues to test advertising. He said Google would start rolling out AI Mode ads internationally. Investors have been on the lookout for signs that AI-generated answers could eat into regular search revenue, and one portfolio manager said the stock would likely stay under pressure until search demonstrates that AI is adding to growth rather than subtracting from it.
Outlay worries compounded the selling. CFO Anat Ashkenazi said capex in 2027 would be much higher than the $195 billion-to-$205 billion range currently forecast for this year, without providing a number. She also pointed to near-term margin strain from drawing on third-party cloud capacity and cautioned that stockpiling Google's tensor processing units would put more pressure on free cash flow.
Cloud was still the standout. Revenue more than doubled to roughly $30.7 billion, above expectations, and Thomas Kurian, CEO of Google Cloud, said in his first appearance on the earnings call that TPU chip sales now make a meaningful contribution. The Cloud backlog has expanded to around $560 billion, per Ashkenazi, with more than 55% of that expected to be booked as revenue inside 24 months.
Microsoft provided the sharpest counterpoint, with its stock up more than 5% in extended trading after free cash flow topped forecasts. Alphabet's next hurdles are how large its 2027 investment plan turns out to be and whether search growth levels off as AI Mode ads become more widespread.
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