ARK's updated model values Tesla near $4,400 a share by 2031, with robotaxis representing roughly 80% of the company's projected enterprise value.
Tesla shares have dropped 18.16% since January 1, yet ARK Invest’s model implies a price near $4,400 each in 2031. That would be roughly 12 times the October 19 closing level of $368.06.
In ARK’s base case, about 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise value is tied to one activity outside car sales. The firm also projects Tesla selling 10.2 million vehicles in 2031, against 1.6 million in 2025.
Robotaxis — Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing service — are that business, the updated ARK model says.
Under the base case, around 8.1 million robotaxis produce $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue in 2031. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, contributes $212 billion from roughly 1 million units sold to outside customers.
The model now includes a separate artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure line tied to Optimus performance. Tesla’s cumulative AI infrastructure spending is expected to hit $225 billion by 2031, versus about $7 billion at the end of 2025.
Total revenue is seen reaching $1.45 trillion in 2031 under the same scenario. These numbers refresh the Tesla model ARK last published in 2024.
“ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024. The primary reason is that we believe Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) is likely to inflect as robotaxis continue to proliferate,” wrote ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire.
ARK’s 2024 model called for Tesla at $2,600 a share in 2029 and flagged 2025 as the likely launch year for robotaxis.
Tesla began its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 and has now extended it to 7 cities across 3 states. Its fleet has covered more than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles over about 7 months.
Even so, ARK views the robotaxi ramp-up as slower than anticipated. That measured pace helped shape ARK’s choice of around 2031 as the point where Optimus could reach human-level performance.
ARK identifies a robotaxi rollout that lags forecasts as the biggest risk to its projections. It lists four possible causes.
On timing, Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. sees robotaxis reaching additional cities in early to mid-2027. He expects Optimus to follow later that year.
ARK’s disclosure notes that the forecasts lean positive and that some or all outcomes could end up materially lower.
Tesla posts third-quarter results on October 21. Analysts followed by Nasdaq predict earnings of $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 a year earlier. Investors can also listen to the call for robotaxi expansion, Optimus timing and AI spending — the factors underpinning ARK’s model.
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