Asia calendar: Japan in focus with Tokyo CPI and BOJ decision

Japan will be in focus across Asia on Friday, as Tokyo CPI data and the Bank of Japan's policy decision land.

A raft of Japanese economic data arrives on Friday ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, putting Japan in the spotlight. The BOJ is broadly anticipated to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25%. A December adjustment is still possible, so the market’s attention will centre on the policy statement’s tone and the quarterly Outlook Report, not the decision alone.

First out is October’s Tokyo CPI at 23:30 GMT (with a preview to follow). Core inflation, stripping out fresh food, is forecast at 2.6%, slightly under the 2.7% recorded in September and still above the BOJ’s 2% target. Headline Tokyo CPI was 2.7% in September, while the measure excluding food and energy stood at 3%. Since the Tokyo data are an early indicator for national price trends, they will directly affect December rate expectations.

Labour market figures for September are also due at the same time. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 2.5%, with the jobs-to-applicants ratio at 1.18. At 23:50 GMT, preliminary industrial production is seen rebounding 1.3% month on month, recovering from a 2.4% decline in August. Retail sales are forecast to rise 3.3% year on year, accelerating from 2.7% before.

The BOJ decision has no set release time, but the Outlook Report is due at 03:00 GMT. Any hint about the timing of the next rate increase will probably be the key catalyst for the yen and Japanese government bonds.

• Daiwa expects the BOJ to hold, but a 2% inflation call could pave the way for a December hike – BOJ preview
• MUFG anticipates a hold, but a 2% inflation call with two dissenters poses the main yen risk – BoJ preview
• BOJ to keep rates at 1.25%, while Ueda signals further tightening toward neutral
• BOJ seen raising rates to 1.50% in December as 69% of economists foresee a Q4 hike
• BOJ reportedly may upgrade its inflation outlook while holding rates steady at next week's meeting

New Zealand's ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence reading, previously at 97.6, is due at 21:00 GMT. Australia also releases data. At 00:30 GMT, third-quarter producer prices are predicted to increase 1.0% quarter on quarter, easing from the 1.3% rise in Q2. Private sector credit is seen expanding 0.5% in September.

Housing starts and construction orders for Japan round out the session at 05:00 GMT.

BOJ Governor Ueda's press conference is scheduled after the data and decision, at 0630 GMT.