Bessent's Energy Shock Claim Not Yet Confirmed by Oil Prices

Early in my trading career, I learned a key lesson: price action must help validate the fundamental narrative. A story may be persuasive. For traders, though, the real issue is whether the market's movement backs it up.

Speaking on 2WAY TV, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. is on the “other side of the energy shock.”

One could argue that the worst of the initial price surge is over. However, when I examine crude oil prices and their technical levels, I cannot yet claim a win.

December crude futures hit $101.37 earlier today. They have since dipped under $100, but are still up roughly 0.78% as of this writing. Before the conflict started on February 28, crude was around $67. At near $100, that is about 49% above that pre-war level.

The initial rally that pushed crude to a March peak of $119.48 may be behind us. Yet the elevated price level resulting from the climb from $67 to roughly $100 remains firmly established. Pulling back from a high and fully reversing the advance are distinct achievements.

This is where technical analysis aids traders. It provides concrete thresholds to assess if sellers are gaining the upper hand and whether the price movement is starting to back the narrative.

At present, these levels still tilt in favor of buyers:

• The price remains above the $97.00–$98.48 range, the first support sellers need to break.

• The rising 100-hour moving average at $96.83 serves as the next near-term reference.

• The rising 200-hour moving average at $94.46 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the July-to-September advance at $94.60, creating a key downside hurdle at $94.46–$94.60.

The lesson here is that a bearish turn occurs gradually. Sellers do not have to breach every support level for the short-term bias to shift downward. However, they must begin breaking support and holding prices beneath those levels.

A sustained dip under $97.00–$98.48 would be the initial hint of progress. A drop below the 100-hour moving average would reinforce that indication. Falling under—and remaining under—the $94.46–$94.60 region would offer firmer proof that sellers are seizing control of the rally.

For now, the price is staying above support. Buyers maintain the stronger technical footing.

The broader view also merits attention. Crude is still above its 100-day moving average at $85.86 and its 200-day moving average at $84.45. These are longer-term measures for determining if a near-term pullback is turning into a larger reversal.

Would a break of those moving averages confirm that the economic impact of the energy shock has ended? No. But it would give more persuasive price evidence that the market is reversing the advance.

As a trader, my role is to identify what the market is currently doing, determine at what point that assessment would alter, and adjust when the data changes.

At the moment, crude oil's technical lean remains upward. If sellers start breaking support and sustaining those breaks, I will acknowledge that change. The fundamental narrative provides food for thought. The price movement provides something measurable.