Bitcoin Closes Below 50-Week Average, Ending 7-Week Run; Past Breaks Preserved Bear Lows

The weekly close for November 8 put Bitcoin at $74,968, 0.7% under its 50-week moving average. That concluded a seven-week stay above that average, a level that Galaxy's Alex Thorn has connected to past bear-market lows.

The focus for Bitcoin investors now moves to the June 28 weekly close of $59,517, the lowest weekly print of the current cycle. In two past instances, a similar fall below the average did not invalidate the bear-market low. Yet Bitcoin's distance above that low is smaller this time.

Bitcoin Dips Under Its 50-Week Moving Average

The 50-week moving average is the arithmetic mean of Bitcoin's most recent 50 weekly closes. Galaxy states that Bitcoin regained that level on September 20, which was 12 weeks after the June low.

That reclaim close of $81,195 marked the start of seven consecutive weeks above the average. By November 8, the close was 7.7% beneath that level, while remaining 26% higher than the June low.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $75,031, a 24-hour decline of 0.86%, as reported by BeInCrypto Markets. This put it approximately 0.6% below the average.

The weekly close also occurred over a weekend marked by forced liquidations across the crypto market, with long positions bearing the heaviest impact. Galaxy's analysis shows that a post-bottom reclaim has been relinquished in the past, but on just two occasions.

Two Earlier Cycles Lost the Average Yet Preserved Their Low

Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, has tallied five post-bottom reclaims of the average since 2012, with September's included.

Among the four earlier instances, the 2015 and 2023 reclaims remained intact until Bitcoin achieved its previous peak. The remaining two failed, but the bear-market low was not broken in either case.

The following details how those two losses unfolded.

2011-12 cycle

• The January 2012 reclaim saw Bitcoin close 18% above the average.
• Three weeks later, Bitcoin dipped beneath the average once more, spending 20 weeks below.
• The lowest weekly close in that stretch was $4.39, still 99% above the 2011 bear-market trough.
• It took until February 2013 for Bitcoin to reclaim its earlier high.

2019-20 cycle

• In May 2019, Bitcoin reclaimed the average with a 5.7% buffer, and that stay lasted 29 weeks.
• Afterwards, Bitcoin fell below it on five occasions, with the most severe occurring in the March 2020 COVID-19 crash.
• The lowest close in that period was $5,359, 68% above the 2018 bear-market low.
• Bitcoin reached its previous high again in December 2020.

In both instances, Bitcoin returned to its former high within two years of the reclaim.

Why the 2026 Cushion Appears Thinner

When Bitcoin reclaimed the average in September, its close was about 36% above the June low. The 2019 reclaim close stood roughly 79% above the bear-market low, while the 2012 one was about 223% above.

Another metric indicates that the current decline has already exceeded 2020's. The November 8 close was 7.7% under the reclaim close, versus 6.5% at the 2020 low.

In 2012, the retest dropped 38.1% from the reclaim close. A matching fall from $81,195 would bring Bitcoin to about $50,260, under the June low.

Thorn does caution that the cushion's size has not been a reliable predictor. The 2012 reclaim broke despite a starting point 18% above the average, whereas the 2015 one held from just 8% above.

Galaxy also highlights two weekly closes above the average in December 2021 and March 2022. Both occurred before that cycle's low, which was subsequently breached by an even lower close.

Thus, Thorn's conclusion applies solely to reclaims that follow a Bitcoin bear-market low. He also emphasized the sample's very small size.

"Caveat: 5 reclaims is the whole sample, and “bottom in” is only known in hindsight. for 2026 it means $59,517 holding," he said.

What Bitcoin Must Do for the Bottom Call to Remain Valid

The immediate test involves the next weekly close compared to the 50-week moving average, which is presently around $75,488. Underneath that is the 200-week moving average at $67,746.

Thorn identifies the June low of $59,517 as the level that must hold for the bottom call to remain intact. Across the four completed bear markets Galaxy has studied, no weekly close following a post-bottom reclaim ever fell beneath that low.