Bitcoin Decline Risks Echoing Silver's Post-2011 Crash

Bitcoin closed below $83,000 for a second consecutive week, a key support level that would have signaled a bullish trend. According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, that confirms a fake-out. Cowen now worries that Bitcoin might follow the pattern of silver's gradual collapse after 2011, when that metal lost 73% over 4 years.

Could the September Rally Have Snared Bitcoin Buyers?

Cowen, who sits on BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council, outlined a simple test. One weekly close under $83,000 would be bearish, and a second would confirm that outcome. The prior week's close was $82,042, and on October 25 it was $80,154. This week it remains near that level, not holding the $83,000 support.

Cowen next points to the BMSB, two moving averages near $72,000-$76,000. A fall to that level might serve as a caution for additional declines.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Ethereum have already slipped below their 50-day averages and reached that band.

Why Silver's Trajectory Disturbs Cowen

Cowen sees silver as the closest analogy. After hitting around $49 in 2011, silver twice maintained its lows, and its rallies appeared to be recoveries. One rally even ended above the 50-week moving average in late 2012. Silver still deteriorated in 2013 and dropped to about $14 by 2015.

“What keeps me up at night is more so what if it follows like the silver path… I hope it doesn’t and I’m constantly looking for reasons for why it won’t.”

For Bitcoin, this implies a low in February, another in July, and possibly one in the fourth quarter. Recoveries would weaken until a breakdown in 2027 or 2028.

What would concern him most is a fall to $60,000 and a bounce, which would turn September's buyers into resistance. A drop below the realized price — the average cost basis of all coins — would force genuine capitulation.

Silver is currently unwinding similarly. It ended Friday at $53.83, about 56% below its January peak, its lowest level of 2026.

What Needs to Break Next for the Bearish View?

Cowen has extended his earlier bearish fourth-quarter plan into an 11-step sequence.

• Bitcoin records a second weekly settlement below $83,000
• The fake-out becomes confirmed
• BTC declines to the BMSB
• The Fed maintains rates on Oct. 28
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation arrives hot on Oct. 29
• The 10-year Treasury yield rises again
• Bitcoin and equities fall
• Oil hits $120
• The Fed hikes rates in December
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbs before the Fed's December meeting
• Long-term yields fall toward year-end

If any step fails, Cowen says, the rest becomes questionable. A weekly settlement above roughly $84,000 would weaken the thesis.

Has Bitcoin’s Downside Already Been Capped?

Charles Edwards, who runs Capriole Investments and also serves on the council, has a different near-term view. The put/call ratio for Bitcoin — comparing bearish and bullish options bets — has reached 1.46.

No guarantees (there never are) but when Bitcoin's Put / Call ratio gets this extreme, the downside locally has been relatively capped. pic.twitter.com/sFvkWPlRqR

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 26, 2026

Edwards identified similar spikes near the lows of February and June 2026. In 2022, though, a spike in May around $29,000 preceded a drop to roughly $17,600.

The two perspectives might not be contradictory. A local bottom still permits a test of the support band. Cowen's greater worry is a long-term erosion similar to silver's grind over years, which no options signal can exclude.