Bitcoin Drops Under $80,000 as Cowen's Bearish Steps Unfold

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) dropped beneath $80,000. According to Benjamin Cowen, two out of nine steps in his bearish 2026 roadmap have already been completed.

The steps that have been checked off are a weekly closure under $83,000 and a fakeout on October 25 — a breakout that subsequently reversed. But the following two steps hinge on planned events this week rather than on price movements.

Which Macro Dominoes Are Next?

His scenario assumes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not hike rates at its October 28 meeting. The Fed's decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern Time, per its calendar.

I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k)

✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again)
✅-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25)
-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28)
-PCE comes in hot (Oct 29)
-Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120)
-Long end goes up (10Y back to 5.3%)… https://t.co/jLHzwBwIUu

— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) October 26, 2026

After that, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on October 29. Cowen's roadmap requires a hot reading from that inflation measure.

Oil’s recent rally is already near the target, with Brent crude closing at $116.72 on Friday. Cowen's projected figure is around $120 amid the Iran conflict.

On October 15, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.10%, based on data from the St. Louis Fed's FRED database. Cowen's roadmap anticipates a move back to 5.3%.

The sequence also includes declining stock markets, a bitcoin downturn in the fourth quarter, and lower long-term yields before the end of the year. Cowen points to a pattern of declines during the last quarter of US midterm election years.

What Could Invalidate Cowen's Scenario?

According to Cowen, the roadmap is nullified if bitcoin climbs back above $83,000 and maintains that level. He marked the first two steps as completed in an X post on Monday.

“I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k)”

He had previously warned about the October 25 close in an earlier $83,000 alert. Additionally, bitcoin dipped below $80,000 on Saturday, leading to roughly $191 million in long position liquidations.

Bitcoin now trades under $80,000, with the Fed and PCE steps still pending. These two events may indicate whether bitcoin's price movement is driven by interest rates and oil rather than by crypto-specific factors.