Bitcoin rebounds as crude retreats; US CPI data next in focus

Bitcoin closed lower yesterday, with the wider crypto market under strain after crude oil climbed to fresh weekly highs.

In the Asian session, however, crude prices retreated and a swift reversal appeared across many risk assets, including bitcoin.

The geopolitical backdrop is largely unchanged, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continuing and US-Iran talks stuck in a deadlock. Unless the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, these risks will likely continue to limit upside potential.

Tomorrow's US CPI report is the key near-term catalyst to watch. Core inflation above expectations could trigger a bitcoin selloff, driven by a hawkish repricing and higher odds of an October rate hike. A softer print, in contrast, might give the cryptocurrency a short-term lift.

Bitcoin technical assessment (daily chart)

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is rebounding from the support zone near 81,500. Buyers are likely to keep stepping in at that support, with clearly defined risk below, targeting a rally toward 98,000. Sellers, meanwhile, would prefer to see a break lower to add short positions for a drop to 75,000.

4-Hour Bitcoin Technical Analysis

The 4-hour chart reveals the rangebound price action of the last few weeks more clearly. From a risk management viewpoint, buyers continue to hold a better risk-to-reward setup around the 81,500 support, keeping their sights on new highs; sellers, on the other hand, are better positioned to short from 87,400 resistance or wait for a break below the support.

Bitcoin technical analysis on the hourly chart

The 1-hour chart shows minor support at 83,000. If a pullback occurs, buyers can be expected to enter there, with risk defined below, to position for a rally to 87,400 resistance. Sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback toward 81,500 support and then aim for a lower break. The red lines mark today's average daily range.

Catalysts Ahead

Tomorrow brings the US CPI report. Thursday will see the US PPI, Retail Sales and the latest Jobless Claims figures.