Bitcoin Risks First Back-to-Back Yearly Declines

For the first time ever, Bitcoin is facing the prospect of back-to-back losing years. A look at the yearly trading candles shows 2025 ended roughly 6% lower, making it the first red year immediately after a halving. 2026 is currently down about 16% with seven weeks remaining on the calendar. To turn the current year green, the price would need to rally about 18% and reclaim the $87,500 level. Sean Hagan points out that the timeline is crowded with what he calls panic hands, which view the two red candles as evidence of a struggling asset. He says he wanted to examine the raw data to see the full context. The figures, he suggests, may paint a different picture.

The data shows Bitcoin never had two consecutive losing years until now. The yearly chart now displays two red candles. 2025 stands out as the first red year to follow a halving. For 2026 to finish in the green, the price must reach $87,500. The launch of ETFs pulled the entire rally forward compared to prior cycles. Unlike the 2021 cycle, 2025 lacked a cushion of gains from the previous year. The real difference between the two cycles therefore lies in the first year rather than the second. This market downturn has been shallower and shorter than previous bear markets. Even if 2026 finishes red, it would still be the mildest post-top year on record. An 18% rally, the amount Bitcoin needs to recover, happens roughly one year in every eight. The headline sounds worse than what is actually happening. This represents a better, more mature, and stronger Bitcoin.

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