Bitwise Lifts Bitcoin's 2036 Price Forecast to $1.6 Million

This week's release of Bitwise Asset Management's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions puts the 2036 base-case bitcoin target at $1,599,766, compared with $1.3 million a year ago.

That projection implies a compound annual growth rate of 34.3% from the roughly $83,557 price the firm used on September 30, 2026. Bitwise's bear-case figure is $130,686, while its bull case stands at $3.67 million.

Three assumptions support the base case: institutions will keep adding bitcoin to portfolios, new supply stays on a predictable fixed schedule, and rising government debt will push investors toward assets that cannot be printed.

Institutions remain drawn to bitcoin

In Bitwise's estimation, institutions that oversee about $147 trillion could allocate 1% to 5% of portfolios to bitcoin, producing $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in purchases. With the network issuing about $14 billion in new coins each year, Bitwise argues that gap should push prices higher.

The supporting infrastructure for institutions keeps expanding. Roughly $108 billion is held in U.S. spot bitcoin ETPs, the report says. Custody and trading services are being built by banks and brokerages, and one recent report highlights sovereign wealth funds and family offices buying during the 2026 decline.

Regulators are acting as well. A Federal Reserve capital proposal intended to ease custody rules for banks could, if adopted, broaden large institutions' access.

The past year put that thesis to the test. From an October 2025 high of $126,080, bitcoin dropped 53.4% to a June 30, 2026 low of $58,717. Bitwise describes that decline as the shallowest in the asset's history, following prior cycle drops of 77%, 84% and 86%.

Whether the mild drop points to a structural shift or a temporary lull is harder to call. Bitwise expects the four-year cycle to lose force as the investor base widens. Others maintain that the cycle is still running.

VanEck argues the current downturn follows the historical halving pattern, while Fidelity has cited a possible floor around November 2026 if past timing is any guide. NYDIG has said that a repeat of earlier bear markets could push the cycle low to roughly $38,000 to $39,000. Cathie Wood has made the case that the market is close to the end of its decline. Each view implies a different floor and timetable.

Volatility's role in the forecast

Volatility forms the second pillar of the projection. Bitwise models average volatility of 27.8% over the decade, placed at the midpoint between the current level and its 2036 outlook. Grayscale's head of research recently estimated one-year volatility at 43%, versus a 10-year average of 64%, and below the volatility of 19% of S&P 500 companies. Charles Schwab's research found bitcoin still prone to sharp drawdowns despite the softer readings. A Deutsche Bank analyst has called the trend a sign of a maturing market.

Bitwise also reports that bitcoin's correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 in September 2026. The firm expects that connection to strengthen, a shift that anchors bitcoin's role as a store of value. That relationship can work in both directions. A weaker gold price could strip bitcoin of the support it derived from that same investor demand. Gemini has predicted that at least one nation will move some of its gold reserves into bitcoin in 2026, a call that remains unrealized.

The report does not hide the risks. Bitcoin has only a short track record. Its software dates to work done in 2008 and 2009, exchange trading began in 2010, the first institutionally oriented product tied to bitcoin launched in 2014, and spot ETPs followed in 2024.

Bitwise writes that forecasts leaning heavily on the past are subject to uncertainty, since future performance may not resemble earlier returns. A second worry is regulation. The Clarity Act failed in Congress, a result the report attributes to Democratic concerns over ethics provisions, showing that progress can halt even if Bitwise believes recent advances are unlikely to be reversed.

The third risk is technological. Quantum computing and AI-fueled mathematical progress could undermine the cryptography protecting bitcoin wallets. The network will eventually need a significant upgrade, Bitwise says, and investors who do not shift holdings to new addresses could be left exposed. Progress by developers over the past year is acknowledged in the report, but big questions remain open.

Bitcoin is trading around $80,500 at present.