Brent Oil Surges Past $105 on Renewed Iran Strike Fears

Brent crude rallied nearly 5% on Thursday, reaching about $105 per barrel, the highest level in nearly a month. The surge was driven by reports that Washington is preparing fresh strikes on Iran.

This advance reverses a decline that had pushed Brent temporarily below $100 earlier in the week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose above $91, as per Trading Economics.

Pentagon Strike Preparations Revive the War Premium

As reported by Axios, the Pentagon has directed US Central Command to finalize preparations for renewed, large-scale combat operations against Iran. Possible targets could be nuclear, energy, and infrastructure sites.

President Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision. However, US and Israeli sources indicated strikes might occur before Israel's Oct. 27 election and the Nov. 3 US midterms.

The report followed an article in The Atlantic stating that the White House had asked the Pentagon for pre-midterm strike options. Officials reportedly cautioned that such strikes could sharply increase oil prices.

🚨 REPORT: US & Israel Preparing for Potential Major War with Iran 🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷
According to Axios and US officials, the Pentagon has ordered US Central Command to finalize preparations for renewed, large-scale combat operations against Iran.

Here are the key details:
• The Timeline:… pic.twitter.com/vKivlaAy49

— Commentary Donald J. Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) October 8, 2026

Maritime attacks are also increasing. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker hit by multiple projectiles around 59 miles off Qatar on Wednesday, marking the ninth attack in the region this month.

Until this week, oil had been declining as Gulf exports recovered and the G7 agreed to an emergency reserve release. Even political turmoil in Tehran could not stop Tuesday's drop.

"The market continues to price tightness, supply fragility and geopolitical risk."

That was the view of Citigroup analysts, including Eric Lee, in a note cited by Bloomberg.

Hurricane Isaias and Falling Stockpiles Add Pressure

Isaias, the Atlantic season's first hurricane, forced US Gulf of Mexico producers to shut in more than 510,000 barrels per day.

That is roughly a quarter of the region's crude output. Forecasters expect the storm to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday.

Meanwhile, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data indicated crude inventories dropped by about 3.2 million barrels last week, the largest weekly draw in five weeks.

With diesel supplies already tight, BeInCrypto previously explored whether Hormuz still drives US fuel prices.

Brent Oil Price Analysis Points to $109

On the daily chart, Brent has regained the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $100.64. That retracement spans from the March high of $119.50 to the July low of $70.14.

Brent also rebounded from an ascending trendline drawn from the July low.

Buyers have defended this trendline on three occasions: early August, late August, and Sept. 30.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 60 after retesting the neutral 50 zone in late September.

If the breakout holds, Brent could target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $108.94, roughly 3.5% above current prices. September's swing high near $110 sits just above it.

A daily close back below $100.64 would weaken the bullish setup. In that case, the trendline near $98 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $94.82 would be in focus.

A confirmed strike on Iranian energy sites could accelerate the move toward $109. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough may send Brent back to test its trendline.