Can XRP Really Reach $10? Charts and Open Interest Offer Clues

XRP is back in the spotlight for chart watchers as the token trades around important technical levels this week.

One trader still sees a route to $10, while derivatives data suggests investors should not race ahead.

What Is Behind the $10 XRP Price Target?

Crypto analyst Moustache has pointed to a multi-year descending broadening wedge on XRP’s weekly chart. The formation has taken shape over close to two years. With the token near $1.52, a climb to $10 would mean a jump of almost 560%.

The analyst described the setup as “textbook” and stays upbeat on the long-term picture. He did acknowledge the breakout may take time to fully unfold.

On shorter time frames, the charts show a similar build-up of coiled tension under the surface. Analyst Ali Martinez has observed XRP trading inside a triangle pattern and closing in on its apex.

That kind of zone has often preceded bigger moves in either direction. Whale wallets have remained mostly on the sidelines, with combined holdings staying near 3.9 billion XRP over the past week. A clear four-hour close above $1.53 could open the path toward $1.62 in the near term.

$XRP – Update

Still looking for that slow grind up on XRP.

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__), October 4, 2026

Can an XRP Rally Withstand the Pressure?

Not every analyst is calling for an immediate breakout. One market observer puts the odds of an upward move at 65% to 70%. He sees a 30% to 35% chance of a downside break, adding that XRP’s RSI remains below 50.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also flagged a developing cup-and-handle pattern on XRP’s chart, a formation often associated with more upside.

That interpretation implies the broader market tone is not yet strongly bullish.

— The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt), October 5, 2026

Derivatives data adds another note of caution. According to CryptoQuant, XRP open interest (OI) on Binance has recovered to $516.6 million from 2026 lows around $350 million to $400 million. That is still far below the $1.3 billion seen in October 2025.

Price has outpaced open interest in its rebound. Leveraged traders have not yet shown last year’s conviction, and analysts read the gap as evidence of a more cautious, less euphoric market.

None of this should be taken as investment advice. Crypto markets move quickly and unpredictably; past price action does not indicate what will happen next, and anyone thinking about a position should do their own research first.