China private-sector PMI expected to show slower growth in October

On Monday at 01:45 GMT (Sunday 20:45 US Eastern), the release of China's private-sector manufacturing PMI is scheduled. Economists anticipate factory activity continued to expand in October, but at a reduced rate compared to September.

According to a Reuters poll, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, is predicted to decline to 51.6 from 52.1. This would keep the index well above the 50 threshold dividing expansion from contraction. September's figure surpassed forecasts and marked the strongest reading in five months, buoyed by stronger domestic and international demand, as overseas sales expanded at their quickest pace in seven months.

This comes after a disappointing batch of official data on Saturday. The National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.3 from 50.1, falling short of the 50.0 consensus in the Reuters poll, while new export orders declined to 48.7. Officials at the statistics bureau ascribed the drop largely to seasonal effects, notably a retreat in foreign orders following a robust September.

The two surveys frequently show different results. The RatingDog index draws from a smaller sample of about 650 companies, with a greater focus on export-oriented manufacturers, and gathers responses during the latter half of the month. The official survey encompasses over 3,000 firms at the end of the month. Historically, the private measure has given the more positive reading, a pattern that was evident in September.

Nevertheless, the decline in official export orders on Saturday increases the possibility that the RatingDog figure also undershoots expectations, given its emphasis on exporters. A result near the consensus would indicate that the official weakness was mostly seasonal. A significant shortfall would heighten worries about China's fourth-quarter growth and intensify calls for additional policy measures, as Chinese equities emerge from their worst month in over ten years.

Yuan, Australian dollar and industrial metals traders are expected to monitor the data closely.