Copper Probes Key Support as Mine Supply Heads for First Annual Drop Since 2017

Even as global copper mine output dropped 1.1% in the first six months of 2026, the metal is probing the support trendline drawn from April.

Copper has gained more than 15% over the year so far. But the shortage is in ore, not in refined metal, and that makes the bullish argument more complicated.

Why Is Copper Mine Supply Lagging Demand?

Shutdowns at Grasberg in Indonesia and at Kamoa-Kakula in Congo took about 600,000 tonnes out of expected 2026 production, according to Sprott. That represents about 2.5% of global mine output.

Morgan Stanley’s revised outlook now has mine supply flat or marginally lower this year. If that happens, it would be the first annual decline since 2017.

Replacement supply is arriving slowly. An S&P Global study found that an average discovery takes 17 years to move from exploration into production.

Ore pricing already reflects the strain. Local reports say Antofagasta sold Centinela ore at a treatment charge of minus $310 per tonne — in effect, the miner paid the buyer.

Refined copper, however, is not yet in short supply. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shows a 131,000-tonne refined surplus for the first half, with smelters making use of scrap.

Who Bears the Brunt of Copper Scarcity?

Data centers running artificial intelligence (AI) workloads are among the buyers with the most exposure. Industrial Info Resources estimates that a 1-gigawatt AI campus could need up to 50,000 tonnes of copper.

Cost is a small worry — copper accounts for less than 0.5% of a data center’s budget. Delays affecting transformers and cables are the larger risk.

The longer-term deficit looks bigger. S&P Global puts 2040 demand at 42 million tonnes, with supply about 10 million tonnes short.

Comex warehouse stocks, for their part, hit a record of nearly 700,000 tonnes in September. Traders are moving ahead of a proposed 15% tariff on refined imports starting in 2027.

Will the April Support Line Hold?

Copper is making its fifth attempt to hold the ascending support line. It has stood through four earlier tests in June, July, September and early October.

The price is also positioned just under a horizontal resistance zone near $6.70 per pound, an area that has contained rallies since May.

A confirmed move above that zone could set up a push toward $6.95, the September record high.

But each high since that record has been lower, pressing the price into the trendline. If that support breaks, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $6.31 could become the next floor.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50, a neutral level that favors neither bulls nor bears.

Is Copper Outpacing Bitcoin?

Copper’s record close in August came alongside gains in gold and Bitcoin (BTC) during the debasement trade rally.

Their paths have since separated. Copper is up about 33% year over year, while Bitcoin’s spot price sits near $81,700, about 25% lower.

They also share a hardware supply chain. As miners pivot toward AI, they stand in the same line as data centers for copper-heavy transformers and cabling.

For now, copper’s premium comes from mines, not from money printing. A break below the April trendline would test whether investors still see it as a hard-asset hedge.