Jim Cramer tracks SpaceX insider share unlocks, with a 1.31 billion share batch pending after Q3 earnings. He defends the stock's valuation.
On Thursday, Jim Cramer described SpaceX's latest deal as "HUGE." By Friday morning, he had shared a printout that tracked a different metric: the number of SpaceX shares that insiders could now sell.
Friday's release involved up to 328.4 million shares. The next scheduled batch is four times that size.
When SpaceX went public in June, early investors and employees pledged not to sell their shares for a set period — a standard lockup agreement.
SpaceX unlocks the shares in tranches, and Cramer's sheet lists each scheduled release.
According to Motley Fool, Friday's unlock was valued at nearly $51 billion. The publication described the schedule as a fleecing of retail investors.
The largest tranche, up to 1.31 billion shares, becomes available two trading days after the third-quarter earnings report. SpaceX has not yet confirmed the exact date.
Cramer's sheet includes a caveat: permission to sell does not guarantee that holders will actually do so.
Cramer is not advising investors to flee. This week, he argued that the stock is fairly priced.
“Yes, there are stocks that I think are insanely priced, but SpaceX is not one of them,” said Cramer.
Based on FactSet data, SpaceX trades at roughly 137 times its anticipated earnings over the next twelve months.
A contrary view comes from investor George Noble, who is short the stock. He estimated in August that its fair value is $30.
A spectrum agreement on Thursday would allow Starlink to offer direct phone service. SpaceX shares climbed roughly 3.9% ahead of Friday's open, while a similar announcement weighed on carrier stocks.
Cramer himself advocates patience. In July, he advised "Mad Money" viewers to wait until the first lockup unlock before making a significant purchase.
Previous unlock dates have had mixed effects. The stock rose around the August release and fell on subsequent ones, such as the September 24 unlock.
The post-earnings tranche will be the biggest since the IPO. Cramer's sheet highlights it as the key upcoming event.
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SpaceX's lockup expiration releases up to 328.4 million shares, but price reaction depends on technical levels and buyer absorption.
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