Dell Options Straddle at $52 Implies 11% Swing Around Tuesday Earnings

The options market is bracing for a sharp move when Dell Technologies posts its fiscal second-quarter numbers after Tuesday's close. Positions expiring September 4 point to a swing of roughly 11% in either direction.

An at-the-money straddle — a call and put paired at the same strike — was trading near $52 against Monday's $456.01 closing price for Dell. The trade only pays off if the shares move beyond the $52 premium.

Dell's Guidance and the Analyst View

For the quarter, Dell forecast revenue of $44 billion to $45 billion, adjusted earnings of about $4.80 a share, and roughly $15.5 billion in AI server revenue. Its Infrastructure Solutions Group, the server and storage division, was expected to expand about 75%.

Across five analyst forecasts, Zacks Investment Research pegs the consensus at $4.72 a share. A year earlier, Dell earned $2.10 in the quarter.

The bar sits high because the prior quarter raised it. Dell's record first quarter beat produced revenue of $43.8 billion, an 88% year-over-year gain, and adjusted earnings of $4.86 that came in far above Wall Street's estimate.

Management subsequently bumped the full-year revenue outlook to $167 billion at the midpoint and raised the AI server target to $60 billion. The stock has advanced roughly 260% in 2026 on the strength of that AI demand.

“We booked $24.4 billion in AI orders and recognized $16.1 billion of AI server revenue. We’re increasing our AI server revenue expectations for FY27 to $60 billion, which only goes to show the AI opportunity shows no signs of slowing,” Jeff Clarke, Dell vice chairman and chief operating officer, said in the quarterly release.

Key Figures Behind Dell's Next Move

Orders and backlog now count for more than the headline number. Dell booked $24.4 billion of AI orders last quarter and finished with a record $51.3 billion AI backlog.

The second test is margins. Storage carries fatter margins than AI servers, and Chief Financial Officer David Kennedy has pointed to memory chips, processors and hard drives as supply constraints.

The company, moreover, has said rising component prices keep forcing it to reprice. A revenue beat paired with soft margins would therefore go over badly. Profit-taking has already hit data center names after big rallies.

Analysts still lean positive. Of 15 analysts covering Dell, 11 rate it a buy, four say hold, and the average target sits at $523.54, with a low of $434.

Nvidia's latest quarterly beat was met with only a modest reaction last week. Whether Dell raises its full-year guide again, and how it frames second-half supply, will determine which leg of the straddle pays.