Dollar broadly gains, Treasury yields slip ahead of Fed meeting

The US dollar is trading mostly stronger as the North American session starts, though the moves are not uniform. The greenback is advancing against the euro, pound, yen, franc and Canadian dollar, while losing ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars. EURUSD and GBPUSD are hovering near their lows for the session, putting the spotlight on whether sellers can extend those declines.

Treasury yields are edging lower, with the 10-year note yield just under 5%. That combination of falling yields and a generally firmer dollar shows the morning's movement is not simply about interest rates. Traders are also looking ahead to a major central bank event: the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which starts today and wraps up on Wednesday. With one week to go before the midterm elections, the Fed is not expected to act. There is no dot-plot scheduled. Fed Chair Warsh is still expected to hold a press conference, though his last such appearance lasted 30 minutes, compared with the roughly one-hour events under Powell. Expectations are low. Meeting calendars and information

Ahead of that decision, today's US economic calendar includes durable goods orders, housing data and consumer confidence. Since most currency pairs remain within their typical daily ranges, those releases could help determine whether the overnight moves extend or reverse.

Middle East risks continue to influence the oil backdrop.

Overnight reports from the Middle East indicated that concerns about imminent US strikes on Iran have abated, with oil consolidating near recent highs. This provides some relief, but the easing of immediate strike fears should not be mistaken for a resolution of the broader geopolitical situation.

Crude oil futures are trading at $101.01, down $0.75. While oil is lower this morning, prices around $100 remain an important consideration for the inflation and growth outlook. To recall, it was around $68 at the start of the Iran/US war on February 28.

The dollar is mostly stronger, though antipodean currencies are resisting.

The dollar's largest gain is against the euro, with EURUSD down 0.27%. Its largest decline is against the New Zealand dollar, with NZDUSD up 0.28%.

From the dollar's viewpoint:

• Against EUR: the dollar is up 0.27%, with EURUSD at 1.1142.
• Against CHF: the dollar is up 0.22%, with USDCHF at 0.8289.
• Against GBP: the dollar is up 0.16%, with GBPUSD at 1.3317.
• Against JPY: the dollar is up 0.15%, with USDJPY at 157.74.
• Against CAD: the dollar is up 0.08%, with USDCAD at 1.4022.
• Against AUD: the dollar is down 0.17%, with AUDUSD at 0.7028.
• Against NZD: the dollar is down 0.28%, with NZDUSD at 0.5696.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars stand out as exceptions to the dollar's broad strength. That makes individual pair movements significant. A stronger dollar against the euro does not guarantee the same opportunity against every other currency.

Currency ranges still leave room for further moves.

Based on the session's highs and lows, the current day's range compared with the average true range over the past 22 trading days (roughly one month) shows:

• EURUSD: 1.1136–1.1179 — 43 pips, compared with a 62-pip average; 69% completed.
• GBPUSD: 1.3308–1.3349 — 41 pips, compared with a 72-pip average; 57% completed.
• USDJPY: 157.43–157.88 — 45 pips, compared with an 88-pip average; 51% completed.
• USDCHF: 0.8269–0.8291 — 22 pips, compared with a 52-pip average; 42% completed.
• USDCAD: 1.4010–1.4027 — 17 pips, compared with a 62-pip average; 27% completed.
• AUDUSD: 0.7010–0.7036 — 26 pips, compared with a 45-pip average; 58% completed.
• NZDUSD: 0.5681–0.5704 — 23 pips, compared with a 41-pip average; 56% completed.

USDCAD has the most room left relative to its normal range, followed by USDCHF. EURUSD has seen the highest proportion of its average daily range already filled, but even that pair is still below its typical daily movement.

The key takeaway is that available range does not indicate direction. A narrow range can expand either upward or downward, and the average range is not a ceiling or a requirement. The technical breakout and the ability to sustain that break offer more valuable trading cues.

Treasury yields slip.

• 2-year yield: 4.6954%, a drop of 1.56 basis points.
• 5-year yield: 4.8100%, a drop of 1.40 basis points.
• 10-year yield: 4.9740%, a drop of 1.20 basis points.
• 30-year yield: 5.2932%, a drop of 0.78 basis points.

The declines are small. The 10-year yield stays near the psychologically significant 5% mark, making traders attentive to data that might alter inflation, growth or Fed policy expectations.

US stock futures point to a higher open.

US stock futures are rising as traders assess this morning's earnings results and look ahead to durable goods and consumer confidence figures before Wednesday's Fed meeting.

• Dow industrial average futures: ahead by 138 points.
• S&P 500 futures: ahead by 21 points.
• Nasdaq 100 futures: ahead by 108 points.

The advance points to a positive start, but today's data and earnings outlooks may still change the mood. Coca-Cola and UPS beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, while Boeing and PayPal delivered mixed results.

Earnings highlights: Coca-Cola and UPS beat on both top and bottom lines; Boeing and PayPal are mixed.

This morning's earnings reports show Coca-Cola and UPS topping expectations on both earnings and revenue. Boeing reported a larger-than-expected adjusted loss despite stronger revenue, while PayPal beat on adjusted earnings but missed on revenue.

• Boeing: adjusted EPS came in at −$0.34 versus an expected −$0.25 (miss). Revenue was $24.2 billion versus $23.9 billion expected (beat). Shares are up 0.63%.
• PayPal: adjusted EPS of $1.45 versus $1.31 expected (beat). Revenue was $8.58 billion versus $8.71 billion expected (miss). Raised its full-year 2026 profit outlook. Shares are down 1.18%.
• Coca-Cola: adjusted EPS of $0.91 versus $0.88 expected (beat). Revenue was $13.4 billion versus $12.92 billion expected (beat). Shares are trading up 0.81%.
• UPS: EPS of $1.69 versus $1.62 expected (beat). Revenue was $22.9 billion versus $22.27 billion expected (beat). Raised its full-year 2026 outlook, with revenue guidance of $92.6 billion versus $91.78 billion expected and EPS guidance of $7.28 versus $7.19 expected. Shares are up 1.18%.

UPS combined its quarterly beats with an improved outlook. PayPal's report is more uneven: earnings topped estimates and the profit outlook was raised, but revenue fell short. Boeing's revenue beat is reassuring, but the wider adjusted loss keeps the spotlight on profitability.

Key earnings reports still due this week.

The earnings calendar is still packed, with Microsoft and Alphabet set to report on Wednesday after the close, and Amazon on Thursday after the close. Those results will keep cloud growth, AI spending and profitability in sharp focus alongside the Fed's decision on Wednesday.

The major remaining releases include:

• Tuesday, October 27, after the close: Visa, Robinhood, Seagate Technology and Teradyne.
• Wednesday, October 28, before the open: GE Vernova, Vertiv, Amphenol and TE Connectivity.
• Wednesday, October 28, after the close: Microsoft, Alphabet and Ford.
• Thursday, October 29, before the open: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck and Shell.
• Thursday, October 29, after the close: Amazon, Intel, Starbucks and Gilead Sciences.
• Friday, October 30, before the open: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie and Colgate-Palmolive.

For the tech giants, the focus will be on whether revenue growth and forward guidance justify the large investments being made in AI infrastructure. Key points to assess include Microsoft's Azure, Alphabet's Google Cloud and Amazon's AWS, as well as capital spending, margins and cash flow. Also worth tracking are GE Vernova and Vertiv for comments on power and data-center infrastructure demand.

Outside technology, Visa and Mastercard provide insight into consumer spending, Caterpillar into industrial demand, and ExxonMobil and Chevron into the energy landscape.

For traders, whether a company topped, matched or missed expectations is just the beginning. The forward outlook and the market's reaction to it are equally important. A company can beat estimates and still see its stock decline if the guidance underwhelms or if investors had hoped for more.

European equities are mixed.

The picture shows small gains for most major continental indexes, while the UK is in negative territory:

• Germany's DAX: 25,475.43, up 64.58 points or 0.25%.
• France's CAC 40: 7,879.57, up 34.24 points or 0.44%.
• UK FTSE 100: 10,685.64, down 81.68 points or 0.76%.
• Italy's benchmark: 19,089.20, up 55.90 points or 0.29%.
• Spain's IBEX 35: 19,102.01, up 68.72 points or 0.36%.

Metals and bitcoin.

• Spot gold: $4,009.95, down $7.25 or 0.18%.
• Gold futures: $4,009.74, down $6.09 or 0.15%.
• Silver: $53.308, down $0.626 or 1.16%.
• Copper: $6.6250, up $0.0830 or 1.27%.
• Bitcoin: $79,750, down $256 or 0.32%.

Gold is holding just above $4,000, while bitcoin is below $80,000. Those round numbers serve as reference levels, but traders still need to see whether prices can sustain a breakout and build momentum beyond them.

North American economic calendar.

All times are Eastern. Forecasts and prior readings below.

• 8:30 AM — Durable goods orders, September — Forecast: +1.7%; Previous: −0.1%.
• 8:30 AM — Durable goods excluding transportation, September — Forecast: +0.6%; Previous: +0.2%.
• 8:30 AM — Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, September — Forecast: +0.7%; Previous: +1.6%.
• 9:00 AM — Monthly home prices, August — Previous: +0.3% month over month; +2.6% year over year.
• 9:00 AM — Case-Shiller 20-city prices, seasonally adjusted — Forecast: +0.3% month over month; Previous: +0.3%.
• 9:00 AM — Case-Shiller 20-city prices, not seasonally adjusted — Forecast: +2.6% year over year; Previous: +2.5%.
• 10:00 AM — Consumer confidence, October — Forecast: 81.0; Previous: 81.9.
• 10:00 AM — New home sales, September — Forecast: 650,000 annualized; Previous: 684,000.
• 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October — Previous: −2.
• 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed services index, October — Previous: 0.

Durable goods data will provide an early indication of demand for manufactured goods. The nondefense capital goods measure, which excludes aircraft, is especially valuable for gauging business investment plans.

At 10:00 AM, consumer confidence data will turn attention to households. The combined picture is important: are businesses still investing and are consumers growing more cautious? A significant surprise could move bond yields and the dollar before Wednesday's Fed meeting.

EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: Key levels for the morning.

From a technical perspective, the three major pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—are examined. For each, the bias, risk-defining levels and targets that would tilt control toward buyers or sellers are outlined.

EURUSD

EURUSD trades at 1.1142, only six pips above its session low of 1.1136. Downside pressure is present, with sellers active near the bottom of the morning range.

The key question is whether sellers can push through 1.1136 and hold the price beneath it. If the break is quickly reversed, it would be a failure and weaken the case for downside momentum. The session high of 1.1179 is the upper boundary of the range.

USDJPY

USDJPY is at 157.74, which is nearer its session high of 157.88 than the low of 157.43. Buyers hold a stronger position within the morning range.

A climb above 157.88 followed by sustained trading above that level would strengthen buyers' control. If the breakout fails, resistance would be confirmed. On the lower side, 157.43 is the session boundary that sellers need to break to shift the range downward.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD trades at 1.3317, nine pips above its session low of 1.3308. Similar to EURUSD, the pair is under pressure near the bottom of its range.

Sellers require a sustained break below 1.3308 to continue the pressure. If the low holds and the price rebounds, buyers would start to contest the immediate downside momentum. The session high at 1.3349 is the upper boundary.