Dollar Mixed, U.S. Stocks Rise, Oil Slips as Iran News Swirls

At the start of the North American trading session, the U.S. dollar is trading in a mixed fashion with minimal net changes. The yen saw the largest gains against the dollar, while the Australian dollar posted the steepest decline versus the greenback. The rest of the major currencies experienced only slight movements.

Nasdaq 100 futures are leading U.S. equity index futures higher. Crude oil has fallen and is now situated between its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, while Treasury yields have ticked up. Gold, silver, copper and Bitcoin are all trading higher as well.

Headlines from the Middle East continue to provide conflicting signals for traders.

The region remains extremely sensitive to news, as military planning clashes with diplomatic efforts.

According to InvestingLive’s overnight report, the Pentagon has drafted options for a campaign against Iran that would last about three days. President Trump, however, has turned down multiple earlier strike plans and stated publicly that there would be no U.S. attack on Iran ahead of the November midterm elections. Traders focused more on that promise than on the military preparations, leading oil prices to decline.

An InvestingLive preview of today's events noted that Trump called his discussions with Iran productive.

What lies ahead remains highly uncertain. News can shift abruptly, and market responses can turn just as fast. Traders must therefore focus on identifying key technical levels, managing risk, and observing which direction can hold a breakout.

The extent of the dollar's movements can be seen in the following changes:

• The euro stood at 1.1211, rising 0.02% as the dollar weakened slightly.

• Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.24% to 158.24, marking its biggest advance.

• The pound was at 1.3224, virtually flat.

• The dollar dipped 0.05% against the franc to 0.8310, a moderate decline.

• The dollar edged up 0.04% versus the Canadian dollar to 1.4230, a small gain.

• The Australian dollar climbed 0.32% to 0.6977, the largest drop for the greenback.

• The New Zealand dollar rose 0.04% to 0.5612, representing another moderate loss for the U.S. dollar.

The trading ranges for the three major currency pairs so far in the session are as follows:

• The euro has traded between 1.1206 and 1.1243, a 37-pip band.

• The dollar-yen pair moved from 157.77 to 158.41, spanning 64 pips.

• Sterling ranged from 1.3223 to 1.3250, a 27-pip spread.

In absolute terms, the pound's range is quite tight. A fresh catalyst may provide momentum, but the key issue is whether the price can push through a technical level and remain outside it.

U.S. stock index futures are signaling a positive open:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are indicating a gain of 38 points.

• S&P 500 futures are up 30 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 222 points.

These bullish opening signals present a chance for buyers. The next challenge will be whether they can extend the advance when the cash market opens.

Crude oil has fallen back between its 100- and 200-hour moving averages.

WTI crude futures currently stand at $90.55, a drop of $0.94, or 1.03%.

The rally seen on the previous day came to a halt inside the swing resistance zone of $92.29 to $93.48. Buyers tested that region but were unable to maintain upward momentum.

The drop on the day has brought the price back between the 100-hour moving average, around $90.00, and the 200-hour moving average, near $90.59.

These moving averages now provide nearby reference points for traders:

• If the price rises above the 200-hour moving average and holds, buyers would gain greater influence. Upside objectives then include the 38.2% retracement level around $91.60, and beyond that the $92.29 to $93.48 swing zone.

• A break below the 100-hour moving average with follow-through would shift control to sellers. Downside targets are $88.72 and the 50% midpoint near $86.93.

Within the range of the two moving averages, the market is attempting to determine the next decisive move. Allow price action to guide your bias rather than anticipating the next geopolitical news.

Treasury yields have moved slightly higher.

• The 2-year yield rose to 4.7848%, an increase of 2.88 basis points.

• The 5-year yield reached 5.0067%, up 1.57 basis points.

• The 10-year yield stood at 5.2463%, climbing 1.33 basis points.

• The 30-year yield was 5.6196%, adding 1.26 basis points.

European equity markets are trading higher.

• Germany's DAX index rose 298.80 points, or 1.20%, to 25,105.78.

• France's CAC added 66.60 points, or 0.86%, trading at 7,796.30.

• The UK's FTSE 100 gained 112.54 points, or 1.08%, to 10,554.13.

• Spain's Ibex climbed 193.80 points, or 1.02%, to 19,122.70.

• Italy's FTSE MIB advanced 524.34 points, or 1.06%, to 49,822.23.

Precious metals, industrial metals, and Bitcoin are all in positive territory.

• Gold rose $51.30, or 1.24%, to $4,184.99 per ounce.

• Silver added $1.2445, or 2.10%, trading at $60.425.

• Copper futures increased $0.1245, or 1.90%, to $6.6930.

• Bitcoin gained $1,101, or 1.35%, reaching $82,777.

Canadian employment data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists forecast an increase of 9,200 jobs in Canada, after a drop of 41,700 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is projected to climb to 6.5% from 6.4%.

The previous month's employment breakdown was as follows:

• Part-time employment fell by 35,900.

• Full-time employment declined by 5,800.

The bulk of the losses were in part-time positions. Today, market participants will look for a recovery in those jobs and a rebound in full-time hiring. A net increase backed by full-time employment gains would be seen as more positive than one fueled solely by part-time additions.

Earnings and labor force participation data will also provide context. In the USDCAD pair, traders should assess the underlying details before reacting to the price movement. The question is whether the data will provide enough impetus for either side to break a technical level and sustain the move.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment reading for October is due at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Economists project the preliminary October consumer sentiment index at 47.6, down from the prior reading of 48.1.

Along with the overall sentiment figure, the inflation expectations components are worth watching. The previous month's numbers were:

• One-year inflation expectations stood at 4.6%.

• Five-year inflation expectations were 3.4%.

The one-year figure reflects near-term price pressures that consumers anticipate. The five-year gauge offers a longer-term view on whether the public expects inflation to stay high.

If expectations increase, that could make the inflation picture more challenging. A lower reading would be more welcome, especially given that consumers are already contending with elevated borrowing costs and fluctuating energy prices. Traders should monitor how Treasury yields and the dollar react to the combined confidence and inflation data.