Fed holds rates as Big Tech reports this week

On Wednesday, October 28, the Fed will announce its decision, though traders have largely priced in no change. Fed funds futures indicate a roughly 90-92% probability of a rate hold. The market view is that raising rates less than a week before the midterm elections would be politically uncomfortable. Consequently, the focus shifts from the upcoming meeting to December, where a rate hike is now priced at 85%.

Thursday's PCE release is on my radar, along with macro signals from this week's corporate reports. Last week, airlines pointed to sustained travel demand and corporate spending, suggesting economic strength – but what about other sectors? Housing stands out, given elevated interest rates and a prolonged downturn in that area.

Monday, Oct 26

After the close: Nucor provides top insights into the steel sector. Pay attention to management's comments on nonresidential construction and order books as long-term rates climb. Steel prices have risen, but tariffs are the driver rather than macro forces. Public Storage offers a less obvious housing indicator: people rent storage units when they move, and high mortgage rates mean few are relocating. Welltower and Sun Communities reflect rate-sensitive real estate, with 30-year mortgage rates exceeding 7%.

Tuesday, Oct 27 — FOMC day one

Before the open: UPS serves as a trade and freight barometer, covering parcel volumes, tariff impacts and small-business shipping. Coca-Cola reveals global volumes and pricing, along with a strong dollar headwind. Sherwin-Williams is a key housing proxy, as repainting demand correlates with existing home sales. Hilton reports RevPAR, the best measure of business travel demand. Royal Caribbean reflects discretionary spending against rising fuel costs; note that Carnival's shares rallied on earnings in early October.

After the close: Visa delivers the day's most important macro report. Its payment volumes offer a real-time snapshot of spending, while cross-border data indicates travel demand. Remember that nominal growth exaggerates volumes when CPI stands at 3.7%.

Wednesday, Oct 28 — Fed decision at 2 pm ET

Before the open: ADP is a macro report that often gets overlooked. Its client pay-per-control figures function as a payroll proxy. Signs of slower hiring among small and mid-sized companies would emerge just before Warsh speaks. GE Vernova provides the power-equipment play: gas turbine backlog, pricing and data center demand. That is a significant macro factor currently, and their order book optimism will be interesting. Phillips 66 reports refining margins, which are exceptionally profitable amid the Iran conflict.

After the close: The Fed's statement and press conference will get minimal digestion before Microsoft and Alphabet release earnings. Their capital expenditure appears in GDP, so pay attention to whether AI spending guidance continues to climb despite rising borrowing costs. Alphabet's search advertising offers a wide-angle view of the ad economy. Chipotle reflects the middle-income consumer and serves as a battleground for inflation.

Thursday, Oct 29 — September PCE

Before the open: Caterpillar provides the week's key industrial reading. It consolidates construction, mining, power generation for data centers and dealer inventories. The stock has been a prominent AI beneficiary but is volatile. Mastercard will either corroborate or challenge Visa's data.

After the close: Amazon offers two macro narratives: retail volumes reveal consumer health, while AWS capex signals AI investment. Starbucks indicates discretionary foot traffic and exposure to China. Mondelez provides insight into cocoa costs and pricing power. Coinbase and Strategy serve as risk-appetite barometers. Intel and Sandisk cover the PC and storage cycle, and are likely to move markets.

Friday, Oct 30

Before the open: From a Canadian standpoint, CN is the one to watch. Rail volumes offer a direct look at Canadian trade flows, tariff effects and the resource sector. Chevron and BP illustrate how major oil companies are deploying capital amid a Middle East risk premium. I will seek indications of drilling discipline.