Fidelity cautions bitcoin bear market may not be finished

Although bitcoin has been rallying, that does not necessarily indicate the end of its bear market, according to Fidelity.

A new report from Fidelity said that although bitcoin’s behavior mirrored previous cycles, the cryptocurrency could still hit a bottom in November.

Bitcoin’s rally began in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double its government debt repurchases. The cryptocurrency’s price recently stood at nearly $81,639, representing a gain of roughly 30% over the past 30 days.

Following the rally, some observers contend that bitcoin has exited its bear market. The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $126,080 in October last year.

“Given bitcoin’s recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July,” wrote Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets.

He continued: “It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later,” and stated that bitcoin cycles have historically not been precisely four years long, meaning they “aren’t reliable for timing the market.”

For most of June and July, bitcoin experienced unusually low volatility, with the price remaining below $65,000.

However, the situation shifted in August following the Treasury Department’s move, which reignited the so-called debasement trade.

Kuiper argued that investors should monitor the crypto Clarity Act for clues about bitcoin’s direction. He wrote that supporters believe the act could offer “greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem.”

In August, President Donald Trump called on lawmakers to pass the long-anticipated crypto market structure bill, which contributed to bitcoin’s rally. After meeting with crypto industry leaders at the White House, Trump described the draft as “very, very powerful.”

The cryptocurrency industry has long sought clear regulatory guidelines for bitcoin, stablecoins, and other digital assets.

The bill is set for a vote by lawmakers this month.