Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% in October 2026; Two Dissent
Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% in October 2026. Two dissenters wanted a quarter-point hike. Markets showed mild moves after the decision.
45 min ago10 min read
FOMC keeps policy rate unchanged at Oct. 28 meeting
At its Oct. 28 meeting, the FOMC left rates unchanged, with traders pricing only a 7% chance of a hike.
28/10/2026 18:113 min read
With Chairman Kevin Warsh offering little guidance, the market spent weeks weighing the chance of an October rate increase before ultimately leaning toward no move, with the probability sitting at just 7% at decision time.
Going into the announcement, markets were positioned as follows:
- S&P 500 had gained 14 points
- US 2-year yields were 2.7 basis points higher, at 4.75%
- WTI crude oil traded up $2.94 at $102.82
- USD/JPY was up 30 pips at 158.23
That follows July's decision, when the vote to hold was 9-3, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan each opting for a hike. September's rate rise was the first of the cycle, and pricing points to about 79 basis points of hikes over the coming year.
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