German September Inflation Confirmed at 3.3% Year-on-Year

• Germany's final September CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the preliminary reading.
• The prior month's rate was 2.9%.
• The final September HICP also increased 3.3% year-on-year, matching the preliminary estimate.
• The previous month's HICP rate was 2.9%.

The final figures were not revised from the preliminary releases, confirming that Germany's headline inflation rate returned above the 3% threshold at the close of the third quarter.

Energy price inflation was the primary driver, with a monthly increase of 3.8% and a 14.9% rise from the same month a year earlier. This made September the third consecutive month of annual energy price gains — August 2026 saw a 10.5% increase, July 2026 had 8.3%, and June 2026 logged 3.4% — and was the highest such rate since February 2023.

Core annual inflation stood at 2.4%, unchanged compared to August. This offers some relief that the energy price surge has not yet spread widely. Services inflation remained a concern at 2.7% in September, though it has declined from above 3% earlier in the year. Still, at this level it continues to keep core inflation above the 2% mark.

The European Central Bank can for the moment find reassurance that core prices are not accelerating again in Germany. However, as elevated energy costs persist, the potential for spillover effects grows. Consequently, the longer this trend continues, the more likely second-round effects on the inflation outlook become.