Gold holds near $4,400 as markets eye US inflation data

Key market moves:

• Crude oil prices were largely flat following a rally earlier in the week, as intermittent reports of Middle East conflict emerged.
• Gold remained close to $4,400 per ounce.
• BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu indicated the central bank would likely continue rate hikes, pointing to inflation risks from oil, food, producer prices, and the yen ahead of the September 17-18 meeting.
• The dollar-yen pair moved within a relatively narrow two-way range, while major currency pairs were broadly stable as markets awaited US producer price data due later on Thursday.
• Donald Trump said Republicans would send $5,000 "dividend" checks to each US citizen if they keep control of both chambers of Congress, a promise estimated to cost over $1.3 trillion and worsen the deficit, though the likelihood of a full Republican victory is seen as low.
• Germany's finance ministry proposed ending the one-year tax exemption on crypto gains, replacing it with a 25% flat rate for assets acquired after January 1, 2027, with automatic withholding by trading platforms expected from 2028.

On Thursday, oil prices traded broadly sideways, consolidating after a strong rally earlier in the week. Intermittent reports of ongoing Middle East conflict provided a floor but did not spur new gains. Gold was steady near $4,400 an ounce as investors prepared for major US inflation data.

In Japan, BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu stated the central bank is likely to keep raising rates, citing inflation risks from oil, food, producer prices, and the yen. His remarks precede the BOJ's policy meeting on September 17-18, where a rate increase is widely expected. The dollar-yen traded in a two-way pattern within a tight range, and major currency pairs were steady as traders awaited the US producer price index later Thursday for Fed policy signals.

On politics, President Trump said Republicans would distribute $5,000 dividend checks to every American if they win full control of Congress in the November midterms. The promise would cost over $1.3 trillion and increase the already large deficit if enacted. The chance of Republicans taking both chambers is low, but the proposal highlights the scale of fiscal commitments being offered as campaign pledges.

In crypto markets, Germany's finance ministry introduced a draft bill to remove the one-year tax exemption on crypto profits, imposing a 25% flat rate on assets bought after January 1, 2027, with automatic withholding by trading platforms reportedly starting in 2028. The draft has not yet been submitted to parliament. The move targets one of Europe's more favorable crypto tax regimes, but its immediate impact is likely on sentiment rather than prices, as it only applies to future purchases and remains unpassed. A confirmed timeline might still cause long-term German investors to reconsider when to realize gains, especially those considering selling under the current exemption before new rules take effect.