Gold Slips Beneath the $4,000 Mark, a First Since July

Friday brought gold's first dip under $4,000 an ounce since July, with the metal touching $3,986.85 at its lowest.

Only 3 weeks before, a major Wall Street bank had called that level a floor for the metal. Bank and analyst forecasts have diverged on how much farther gold could slide.

Spillover From Thursday's Tech Selloff

Artificial-intelligence fears pounded U.S. tech stocks on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq Composite down 2.60% to 26,008.86. The S&P 500 gave back 1.21%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, by contrast, finished roughly flat, keeping the damage concentrated in technology.

Gold moved lower in step with those shares, dropping $116 in the session, as economist Peter Schiff observed. The market account Bull Theory arrived at a combined loss for gold and silver of more than $1.3 trillion.

BREAKING: Gold just crashed below $4,000.

Over $1.3 TRILLION has been wiped out from gold and silver since yesterday.

Gold falls to a 3-month low while silver drops to its lowest level in 11 months.

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 23, 2026

In a conversation with Bloomberg, Justin Lin of Global X ETFs described the drop as a “liquidity-driven selloff.” During sharp slumps, he said, investors frequently sell gold to cover margin calls.

Those same AI concerns might also bring gold some relief, since they have lowered the perceived odds of another Federal Reserve hike; Bloomberg puts the probability of a hike next week at below 10%. Lin said a less aggressive rate path should support gold in the near term.

At the time of writing, gold was trading at $4,002, 7.4% beneath its January 1 level. The slip below $4,000 tests earlier forecasts that the level would hold, and banks and mining executives continue to disagree over how far gold could fall.

Bulls and Bears Set New Markers Below $4,000

Amy Gower of Morgan Stanley said earlier this month that $4,000 would act as a floor for gold. Her case rested on central bank demand, softer bond yields and cheaper oil.

Figures released since then show central banks have continued buying. Fortune reported that Goldman Sachs estimated 79 tonnes of purchases in August. The FT cites provisional World Gold Council data pointing to September buying of close to 63 tonnes so far, the most since November 2024.

Yet the continued accumulation has not kept gold from falling. Ian Cockerill, chief executive of Endeavour Mining, voiced uncertainty over the $4,000 level at an FT event this week.

“Is $4,000 the floor? I don’t know. But if it isn’t, it’s pretty damn close for the next leg up in the gold price,” Cockerill said.

Lin sees $3,900 as the next critical threshold below $4,000. Bank of America has placed its line even lower, earlier flagging $3,750 as a possible low, while also forecasting an average of $4,000 for the fourth quarter.

Some analysts are notably anticipating a quick bounce in gold. Lin still expects a V-shaped rebound, citing lower rates, a faltering AI trade and a weaker dollar.

Schiff went further, arguing that investors positioned for a tech wreck are wrong to assume gold will fall alongside it.

“Gold already corrected. A stock market crash will be bullish,” he said.

Benjamin Cowen of IntoTheCryptoverse was more patient in his outlook. He sees gold in the final stages of its bear market, though it could still suffer for a while longer.

The Federal Reserve gathers on October 27 and 28. Leaving rates unchanged would provide the relief Lin expects, while an unexpected hike could bring the $3,900 test nearer.