Golden Week closure impacts yuan, futures, and Hong Kong liquidity

On October 2, 5, 6 and 7, Hong Kong will be open for trading but without any Stock Connect flows in either direction. This could result in thinner liquidity for China-focused and dual-listed shares, driven more by offshore participants. The onshore yuan market is closed, so the offshore yuan will take over price discovery, albeit with less depth. Additionally, mainland commodity and financial futures are not trading, removing Chinese price signals for the entire week. Any news that emerges during the holiday will first be reflected in offshore prices, increasing the likelihood of adjustments when mainland markets resume on October 8. The size of the People's Bank of China's liquidity operations around the holiday will also influence funding conditions.

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Mainland Chinese markets and Stock Connect will be dark for a full week, while Hong Kong reopens on Friday. This means Hong Kong equities and the offshore yuan will be the primary vehicles for price discovery until October 8.

Key details:

• The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges will be closed from Thursday, October 1 through Wednesday, October 7 for National Day, reopening on Thursday, October 8.
• Stock Connect trading in both directions is suspended from October 1 to 7, according to HKEX's Stock Connect calendar, with normal operations resuming on October 8.
• The Hong Kong exchange will only close on Thursday, October 1 and trade normally from Friday, October 2.
• The Shanghai Futures Exchange, China Financial Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange are closed from October 1 to 7 and will also be shut on Saturday, October 10, which is a make-up working day.
• The Shanghai Composite ended up circa 0.3% at around 3,840 on Wednesday, its last session before the break.

Mainland China's financial markets will be closed from Thursday, October 1 to Wednesday, October 7 for the National Day holiday and are scheduled to reopen on Thursday, October 8. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges will be closed for the entire seven-day period. The Shanghai Composite closed Wednesday's session approximately 0.3% higher at around 3,840, with turnover of about 680 billion yuan, as the last session before the holiday.

Stock Connect, the program connecting mainland and Hong Kong stock markets, will be suspended in both directions for the entire week. According to HKEX's Stock Connect calendar, Northbound and Southbound trading are closed from October 1 to 7 and resume normal operation on October 8. Because the link requires both markets to be open simultaneously, it halts whenever the mainland is on holiday, even if Hong Kong is trading. A September 17 notice from the China Securities Depository and Clearing arm confirmed the same dates for the Shenzhen link.

The Hong Kong exchange itself will close only on Thursday, October 1 for National Day. It reopens on Friday, October 2 during its regular hours of 09:30 to 12:00 and 13:00 to 16:00 local time, and will trade normally on October 5, 6, and 7. Trading volumes in Hong Kong may be lower around the holiday.

Futures and gold markets in Shanghai will also be closed for the week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange, China Financial Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange have all announced closures from October 1 to 7, reopening on October 8. All three exchanges will also be closed on Saturday, October 10, a make-up working day, as exchanges do not trade on weekends. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will hold a call auction from 08:55 to 09:00 local time on October 8 and resume night trading that evening. According to Shanghai Metals Market, it adjusted price limits and margin ratios before the break and will restore them after the first day of trading.

The shutdowns mean the offshore yuan market, which has less depth than the onshore market, will handle price discovery. Mainland China was also closed on September 25 for Mid-Autumn Festival, so this week-long closure follows a separate one-day break the previous week. Traders will monitor how Hong Kong-listed and China-focused shares perform without mainland participation, how the offshore yuan trades, and whether news during the holiday triggers adjustments when mainland markets reopen on October 8.