Hash Ribbon Reversal Signals Bitcoin Bottom as Miner Stress Eases

On August 26, the hash ribbon made a recovery and has remained intact for 61 days. Bitcoin has historically been higher one year later in six of the seven recoveries recorded, a roughly 72% advantage. Sean Hagan details the signal: 15 misses out of 231, with April 2021 seeing a 17% drop, the January signal remains 12% below its starting point, and the 30-day hash rate—about 1.1 ZH, up 13% from July—suggests the worst of the miner stress is over. Grace Remington asks whether the signal remains reliable if miners left on their own.

Chapters:
At 0:00, the hash ribbon is explained, counting miner capitulation days since 2011.
At 0:26, a new record: 223 of 365 days in capitulation, compared to 141 in 2012.
At 1:01, why this cycle is different: miners left for $100 billion in AI contracts.
At 1:48, it resembles the 2021 China ban more than 2018 or 2022.
At 2:14, the timing still fits: capitulation peaked 56 days after the June 30 low.
At 2:37, the hash ribbon recovered for 61 straight days, and hash rate is up 13% from the low.
At 3:20, price agrees: MVRV above its average and Bitcoin above the 50-week moving average.
At 3:58, is the signal reliable if miners left voluntarily? It was higher 6 of 7 times.
At 5:18, could hash rate come back from AI as the build-out hits bottlenecks?
At 6:52, a backward-looking chart with a 70%-plus directional track record.

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