Iran's Pezeshkian signals desire for a US deal before the midterms, per NBC

On the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian had a brief exchange with NBC News and other media organizations:

• “We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms.”
• “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections.”

The real signal, in this view, is the timing. Pezeshkian is indicating that Tehran would prefer movement before the US midterm vote. For market participants, the immediate question is whether either side makes tangible moves toward talks. His comments on their own do not show that a deal is close.

An interview with Pezeshkian is expected to air on Fox News at 6 p.m. Whether these remarks are drawn from that interview is not clear. Taken at face value, his statements point to wanting an agreement before the US midterms. Whether that willingness becomes action is the open issue. Similar talk of a deal has been heard before, only for negotiations to stall. Traders will be watching for concrete steps from both sides.

After reports surfaced of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the US blockade, crude oil fell to $93.30 from a high of $96.78. That pullback did not last. Oil climbed back to $95.66 and is now trading at $94.96. That back-and-forth suggests to me that traders are weighing the chance of a deal while remaining unconvinced it will materialize.