Jackson Hole and European Inflation Data in Focus

European Session: Preliminary inflation data from France and Spain are due. Both are forecast to increase after higher energy prices in August, though attention will center on core readings.

However, the European Central Bank has already signaled a September rate increase and indicated limited appetite for further tightening, so market response could be subdued since the figures do not alter near-term policy expectations.

American Session: Attention turns to Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. Following the Treasury buyback plan and Bessent’s verbal effort to cap long-term yields, traders are expected to focus on whether Warsh pushes back against the recent easing in financial conditions.

If he does not, the ongoing "debasement" trades – long precious metals, bitcoin, and short US dollar – are likely to continue. Conversely, if he pushes back with remarks such as "recent easing in financial conditions, if sustained, could complicate the process of returning inflation to our target" or "if recent easing threatens progress toward price stability, we will not hesitate to respond appropriately" and similar, markets could tighten financial conditions and prolong the pullbacks in those trades.

Warsh is scheduled to speak at 14:00 GMT / 10:00 ET. Prepared remarks usually become public just before or as the chair delivers the address.

• 12:45 GMT/08:45 ET – Bank of England's Mann (hawkish, voting member)
• 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET – Federal Reserve's Hammack (hawkish, voting member)
• 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – Fed Chair Warsh (neutral, voting member)
• 15:40 GMT/11:40 ET – Bank of England Governor Bailey (neutral, voting member)
• 15:55 GMT/11:55 ET – European Central Bank's Schnabel (hawkish, voting member)
• 16:30 GMT/12:30 ET – Federal Reserve's Goolsbee (hawkish, non-voting member)