Launch of GTA 6 could trigger $1 billion US output loss, matching Take-Two's cash flow target

One economist believes as many as 1.5 million people in the United States might take the day off work for Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) on November 19, leading to a potential $1 billion hit to economic output in a single day.

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), the game's publisher, projects over $1 billion in cash flow from operations for its current fiscal year. The two sums align numerically but reflect different metrics.

Is the $1 billion GTA 6 output loss projection reliable?

The projection stems from economist José García Montalvo of Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, according to a report by IBTimes. He presents it as an academic calculation, not an authoritative prediction.

In his talk with Spanish station Cadena SER, however, Montalvo provided no specific worker count, as a separate IBTimes story notes. The 1.5 million number emerged at a later date.

The estimate highlights males aged 18 to 30 and employees in technology as those most likely to take time off.

Meanwhile, Burger Motorsports, an auto parts company in California, declared a complete work stoppage for November 19, according to TechSpot. The firm shared the news on Instagram.

Does Take-Two truly receive the same $1 billion the US economy loses?

Not directly. Take-Two's projection concerns operating cash flow, the cash its core business generates, over the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027.

In contrast, the company's operating cash flow in fiscal 2026 was $624 million, per Nasdaq.

Take-Two also targets net bookings of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, which covers all game and service sales. GTA 6 is central to that projection.

On Wednesday, Take-Two shares were changing hands around $206.70, a drop of 19.79% since the start of the year, based on TradingView figures.

The stock has fallen 12.5% over the past three months and 21.17% over one year. Despite that, Take-Two noted an outstanding beginning to GTA 6 pre-orders in August without releasing any specifics.

Take-Two's stock slump has kept up regardless of the company sticking to its November 19 launch date.

No matter the final figures, a single video game now affects both corporate work schedules and the prospects of a publicly traded publisher simultaneously.