Nasdaq recovery shows early bullish signs, but key support levels will decide the next move

Opinion: Shorting this market (Nasdaq) is unwise when the price has reclaimed this channel on the daily timeframe.

Nasdaq futures could be reversing the selloff. The bullish scenario may break down at a specific point.

Following the technology-stock rout last week, Nasdaq futures are displaying initial hints of a bullish rebound. Improved price action and rising buying pressure indicate sellers might be losing their grip, yet the key question is whether buyers can sustain the recovery or if another steep drop lies ahead.

Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) are starting to push back against the bearish view that dominated the technology-stock selloff last week. Recent price and order-flow data point to an early bullish recovery, though not a confirmed long-term shift. For traders, the zone around 27,780-27,813 may prove crucial in determining whether the rebound holds.

An important takeaway: It is possible to be correct about the Nasdaq's direction and still incur losses by entering at the wrong moment.

Is the Nasdaq selloff evolving into something more bullish?

The sharp technology-stock drop on Thursday, November 5, prompted many investors to wonder whether the market was heading for a deeper correction.

Concerns over artificial intelligence spending, high valuations and the financial demands of AI infrastructure have made investors particularly wary of weakness at firms like Nvidia.

Yet markets seldom move in straight lines, and the evidence is beginning to shift.

Nasdaq futures staged a notable recovery after hitting roughly 26,366.50 on November 6. A later decline to 27,516 on November 10 failed to trigger a lasting breakdown.

The rebound was accompanied by improving hourly price action and increasingly constructive buying pressure.

By around 00:29 Eastern Time on November 11, NQ was trading near 28,227, after reaching an observed peak of 28,233.25.

These are historical overnight figures, not real-time market quotes.

What catches my attention is not just that Nasdaq futures have bounced back. It is how the market reacted when sellers tried to push prices lower, and how effectively buyers then moved prices up.

The AI rebound is spreading beyond Wall Street

Other developments tie into the futures picture.

Technology shares in Asia have been recovering. South Korea's KOSDAQ rose nearly 5%, reinforcing the notion that demand for some AI-linked investments is coming back.

The broader regional developments are covered in investingLive's Asia-Pacific market news report on the KOSDAQ rebound and oil markets.

Meanwhile, CoreWeave stock climbed roughly 13% after its earnings release.

The company's strong revenue growth and raised guidance offer evidence that demand for AI computing infrastructure remains significant.

However, as the CoreWeave analysis notes, extraordinary growth does not remove worries about financing costs or ensure a sustainable stock-price recovery.

This distinction matters.

Investors can become more upbeat about AI infrastructure demand while still being cautious about profitability, valuations and financing.

Similarly, improving sentiment toward AI stocks can help Nasdaq futures rebound without guaranteeing that the broader market has established a durable bullish trend.

A macroeconomic complication also exists. The October US consumer price index, released November 10, rose 0.4% month over month, while core inflation climbed 0.3%.

Inflation and interest-rate expectations remain meaningful risks for growth-stock valuations.

Something interesting is happening beneath the Nasdaq recovery

One of the most effective ways to evaluate a market recovery is to compare price movement with the buying and selling activity underneath it.

A significant observation emerged during the 10:00 a.m. Eastern hour on November 10.

Nasdaq futures advanced about 362 points, despite showing negative net trading Delta.

What does that signify?

Delta measures the gap between aggressive buying volume and aggressive selling volume.

A negative Delta indicates that more volume was executed aggressively on the selling side than on the buying side.

Yet prices climbed.

This seeming contradiction teaches an important lesson: Aggressive selling does not necessarily lead to falling prices.

The market's response to buying and selling pressure can sometimes offer more insight than the pressure itself.

During the subsequent recovery, several hourly advances were paired with increasingly consistent positive Delta.

That is a more straightforward bullish signal. Buyers grew more aggressive, and prices responded by moving higher.

Additional positive buying-pressure readings during the November 10 evening session strengthened the case that the recovery was drawing participation.

However, the latest completed Delta observations preceded the final upward move in price data. That move should not be described as independently confirmed by fresh Delta readings.

None of this proves institutional accumulation or guarantees another rally.

It does indicate that the bearish conditions visible during last week's selloff are no longer behaving in the same way.

Nasdaq futures: The 27,780-27,813 area deserves attention

This is likely the most practical part of the analysis for swing traders.

Two important market references from November 10 are relatively close together:

27,780: Previous-session Point of Control

The Point of Control, or POC, identifies the price linked to the highest trading volume within a defined volume profile.

It helps illustrate where substantial trading activity was concentrated.

27,813: Previous-session VWAP

VWAP stands for Volume-Weighted Average Price. It measures the average trading price, weighted by volume.

Traders use it to assess whether the market is trading above or below an important volume-weighted reference.

Together, these measurements define an area around 27,780-27,813 that could help distinguish a healthy recovery from a potentially failing one.

If Nasdaq futures remain comfortably above this region, the early bullish interpretation retains meaningful support.

But sustained trading below the area would lead me to reassess whether buyers are truly establishing control.

The difference between a temporary dip and sustained trading below support matters.

A sharp downward move that quickly reverses is not necessarily the same as a breakdown that holds and draws further selling.

What about 27,600?

A wider reference around 27,600 exists, just below a previous-session value-area boundary near 27,619.

For traders assessing a broader swing, that offers additional room for volatility.

But there is a trade-off.

Using wider structural tolerance means accepting substantially more movement against a bullish view before deciding the recovery may be failing.

For my early-reversal interpretation, I prefer focusing on the 27,780-27,813 region rather than automatically allowing the market all the way down to 27,600 before reconsidering.

These are analytical reference levels, not universal stop-loss instructions.

The most important trading lesson: Being early versus being right

Imagine two traders examining the same Nasdaq recovery.

The first wants substantial confirmation before considering a bullish position.

The second is willing to explore the bullish possibility earlier, accepting the risk that the apparent reversal may fail.

Neither approach is automatically superior.

The first trader may avoid several false starts, but also risk entering only after much of the rally has happened.

The second may obtain more favorable positioning, but may experience more failed reversal attempts.

There is no free lunch.

Now consider another situation.

A trader reads a bullish Nasdaq analysis when futures are near 28,300.

The trader buys immediately, without considering how far the market has already advanced.

Nasdaq subsequently pulls back toward 28,100 or 28,000.

The bullish market interpretation might still be reasonable. But the trader could already be facing an uncomfortable loss, particularly when using leveraged futures.

This is why we should separate two different decisions:

1. Market direction: Is the evidence becoming more bullish or bearish?

2. Trade execution: Is the current price attractive enough, relative to the risk and potential reward, to justify a position?

A bullish outlook is not an instruction to chase a rally.

Sometimes the better decision is to wait for a pullback, a successful retest of support, or further confirmation.

And sometimes the market simply moves higher without providing the entry a trader wanted.

Missing a move does not automatically make waiting the wrong decision.

Three scenarios for Nasdaq futures

1. The bullish recovery gains strength

If NQ establishes sustained trading above approximately 28,233-28,250, that would provide another encouraging indication.

Constructive hourly closes and continued positive buying pressure would strengthen the interpretation.

The next historical upside references include approximately 28,465 and the November 4 high around 28,969.

These are areas to monitor, not guaranteed price targets.

2. Sellers regain control

A decline beneath approximately 28,060-28,100 would be an initial warning that short-term momentum is deteriorating.

More importantly, sustained trading beneath 27,780-27,813 would weaken the preferred early bullish framework.

Further weakness below 27,600 would represent a more substantial deterioration.

The November 10 low around 27,516 would then become another relevant downside reference.

In that situation, the bullish interpretation needs to change with the evidence, rather than being defended simply because it once looked promising.

3. Nasdaq consolidates instead

A third outcome is that Nasdaq moves sideways without establishing meaningful new highs or breaking important support.

Buying and selling pressure may alternate while prices remain within a range.

That is not necessarily bullish or bearish.

It may simply mean the market has not yet decided which direction it wants to pursue.

For traders, doing nothing can be a perfectly reasonable response when there is no attractive opportunity with clearly defined risk.

What does this mean for Nvidia and other technology stocks?

Nasdaq futures can offer useful clues about investors' broader appetite for growth and technology exposure.

A sustained improvement in Nasdaq price action could encourage investors to investigate whether selling pressure is also easing in individual technology stocks.

But we should not confuse the two.

A bullish Nasdaq recovery does not automatically mean Nvidia, CoreWeave, Microsoft or every other technology company will rise.

Their earnings, valuations, financial positions and individual technical structures still matter.

CoreWeave's post-earnings volatility illustrates the point particularly well. An individual company can experience dramatic price movements even while the broader index follows a different path.

Futures can help establish market context, but they should complement rather than replace stock-specific analysis.

My conclusion: The bears may be losing their advantage, but don't confuse that with a buy signal

The Nasdaq's recent recovery has developed beyond a single positive candle.

We have improving hourly price action, signs that aggressive selling is producing less sustained downside progress, and increasingly constructive buying pressure.

Taken together, these observations make me less comfortable with the assumption that aggressively shorting Nasdaq remains the better side of the market.

That does not mean another selloff is impossible.

The broader technical damage has not been fully repaired, and investors continue to face genuine uncertainties involving AI spending, inflation and technology valuations.

For now, the 27,780-27,813 area provides an important reference for assessing the health of the early recovery. Around 27,600 offers a wider structural boundary.

The bigger lesson, however, applies to virtually any market.

Good trading analysis is not about being certain of what happens next. It is about recognizing when the evidence changes, knowing what would invalidate your interpretation, and understanding that a promising market direction does not automatically provide an attractive trade entry.

Market analysis based on Nasdaq futures observations through November 11, 2026, 00:29 ET. The outlook is conditional and should be reassessed as new trading data become available.

Educational only. Trade at your own risk.