NYT: US and Israel preparing detailed Iran strike plans for after midterms

Crude is the asset with the largest exposure to this story. The planning suggests a window for renewed attacks could open from early November, after American forces are fully deployed, and that schedule is likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium priced into oil. Iran’s warning that it would strike Saudi refineries — including Aramco plants — precisely to push energy prices higher represents a danger to real supply rather than only to sentiment. Signs that US target selection may leave oil infrastructure alone in order to cap pump prices give only limited comfort, since Tehran would decide its own retaliation targets. Warnings about data centres and undersea internet cables introduce a technology dimension to the risk picture. With Trump having a history of calling off strikes at the last moment, markets may keep veering between pricing escalation and pricing diplomacy, and haven assets such as gold and the US dollar are likely to remain supported for as long as the uncertainty persists.

Earlier:

• Reports: US cuts troop and diplomat numbers across Middle East as threat of Iran action grows

Washington and Israel stand ready to resume fighting Iran once the midterms pass, should Trump not again call it off, while Tehran is signalling that oil prices would be its preferred weapon in response.

Summary:

• The New York Times, citing US officials and others familiar with the talks, reports that American and Israeli forces have prepared detailed plans for fresh strikes on Iran once the US midterms are complete.
• The likely target list includes Iran’s nuclear sites, its missile and drone stockpiles and its energy infrastructure, though some officials say crude-processing plants and oil installations would be spared to prevent fuel-price rises.
• The US military buildup, which includes three aircraft carriers, should be fully in place by early November.
• Trump has vetoed a return to full-scale fighting on multiple occasions, including earlier this month, when both armies were close to launching an attack.
• Iranian officials have threatened reprisals against Saudi oil refineries, data centres and undersea internet cables.
• The October 27 vote in Israel could create complications; the White House offered no comment on military planning.

The report, attributed to US officials and others familiar with the discussions, says the two militaries have drafted specific plans for a renewed campaign against Iran following the US midterms.

The operation being planned is short and intensive, according to the report, and the two militaries have intensified exercises, flying practice strike missions over Iraq. Pete Hegseth, the US Defense Secretary, met Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, in Israel this week to discuss further strikes, officials said. Iran’s nuclear programme, missile and drone stocks and energy infrastructure are likely to be on the target list. Still, some officials said planners would steer clear of refineries and oil installations because President Donald Trump wants to avoid further gasoline price increases. A three-day operation, in the view of some US planners, could produce enough economic damage to move Iran’s negotiating position.

The US is building up forces, among them three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations units, with full deployment expected by early November. Officials see only a small possibility of action this month, but the expectation is that Trump will hold off until after the vote, having pledged not to act beforehand.

Whether Trump will authorise new strikes is highly uncertain. He has repeatedly rejected proposals to return to major combat this year, including earlier this month, when US and Israeli forces were almost ready to attack. The White House said it does not discuss military planning and that nothing has been ruled out in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The newspaper gave grounds for caution. The first round of intense strikes, between February and April, raised energy prices and inflation worldwide and stretched US supplies of missile interceptors, while Iran’s government has so far weathered economic pressure. Iranian negotiators have declined to give ground on the nuclear programme even as American negotiators wield the threat of renewed war as leverage in talks that also address control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have cautioned that retaliation could be broader. A Tehran-based analyst said oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco plants, could be hit to drive energy prices up, and officials have mentioned data centres and undersea internet cables as possible fresh targets. The October 27 Israeli election could also upset the schedule, because if Netanyahu loses he would remain in office in a caretaker role.

The report follows the US State Department’s order for non-emergency employees and their families to depart Saudi Arabia, where Iran-backed Houthi forces keep attacking sites.