Options Market Signals New 'Bullish Regime' for Bitcoin, Says Analyst

David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital, has observed that bitcoin is entering what he calls a new "bullish regime" based on signals from the options market.

Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed back above $50 billion, a level not seen this year. Lawant views this as a sign of market vitality rather than a warning signal. He points to rising spot volume and thinning order books as indicators that the bitcoin market is in the early stages of an upturn.

The discussion covers several topics, including how to interpret bitcoin's market structure beyond open interest, the liquidity absorption ratio, and how to spot a market regime change. Lawant also examines the $60 billion bitcoin options market and the volatility curve, noting why short-dated bitcoin volatility stayed elevated in 2026. He discusses what bitcoin options can reveal that price alone cannot, and shares lessons from Anchorage's 37,000 covered call backtests. Additionally, the conversation touches on how ETFs and treasury companies are altering price discovery.

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