Quiet Bitcoin Trading Is a Bullish Signal, Says Analyst James Check

Bitcoin (BTC) becoming a routine asset is its most powerful bull case, in the view of Checkonchain founder James Check. Its price swings have already narrowed to a scale not seen since summer 2023.

Wall Street, though, still regards volatility as the biggest hurdle. JPMorgan now issues a 10-year Bitcoin return projection yet assigns the digital asset no portfolio weight, leaving institutional demand waiting on the sidelines.

Calmest Bitcoin Trading in Years Says Something Bigger

Check, a former Glassnode analyst, presented the argument on the Honest Money Show on October 27. He says Bitcoin has moved past its speculative early days.

“…it’s going to be normal, guys. That is the most bullish thing that could possibly happen to Bitcoin.”

Glassnode’s data supports the observation. Bitcoin’s 1-month realized volatility, which tracks how strongly prices moved over 30 days, came in at 25.2%.

Only roughly 5% of trading days since 2015 have been calmer for Bitcoin, according to the analytics firm.

The usual trading range is tightening, too. The yearly volatility band now spans about 30–52%, down from roughly 55–78% in mid-2022.

A Milder Bear Market Points in the Same Direction

The latest downturn fits that pattern. From an October 2025 high of $126,000, Bitcoin dropped roughly 54%, reaching $58,379 by June 30.

Peak-to-trough drawdowns by bear market: 2018: -84%, 2022: -77%, 2025–2026: -54%.

Check ties the higher floor to lower existential risk. The market bottomed near $60,000 instead of $40,000, he said, because fewer investors think Bitcoin will fail.

Edward Wu, who heads BloFin Research, has similarly suggested that Bitcoin’s future price collapses may not be as severe.

Is a Quiet Bitcoin the Asset Wall Street Has Been Waiting For?

Check pointed to JPMorgan as a sign of how much ground Bitcoin has covered.

JPMorgan Asset Management added Bitcoin to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA), the firm’s annual 10-to-15-year outlook, on October 19. The bank’s first projected range for Bitcoin returns puts annual gains at 10%, above the 7.5% for US large caps and the 5.5% for gold.

Still, JPMorgan kept Bitcoin out of its model portfolios. The bank cited unstable correlations and 55% historical volatility, roughly three times the level for stocks and gold.

Bitcoin’s role could expand if volatility subsides and correlations stabilize, JPMorgan said. The newest Glassnode number only reflects the short term, but it comes in below half of that long-term estimate.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, a member of BeInCrypto’s Expert Council, has argued that JPMorgan’s volatility input is too high.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.”

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026

Check believes that even a 2% average allocation across model portfolios would bring a huge pool of capital into Bitcoin.

The quiet conditions carry risks, however. Glassnode has noted that a rebound toward $85,000 could prompt long-term holders who accumulated between $85,000 and $118,000 to sell.

Check expects the subdued grind to last until Bitcoin clears $100,000. Once that level is crossed, he expects headlines to pull speculative money back in and close out the dull period.