European markets look quiet on Tuesday as traders await central bank decisions and big tech earnings later in the week.
A sparse economic data schedule awaits European traders at the start of Tuesday's session, which may be something of a relief given the events stacked up for the rest of the week.
The only scheduled releases are France's consumer confidence reading for October and the European Central Bank's lending survey for the euro area for September. Otherwise, trading could be left to broader market flows while investors ready themselves for a heavy stretch of central bank meetings.
Overnight, US stocks offered a firmer handover, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and the Nasdaq closing 0.8% higher. Technology names helped drive that rebound, but caution remains elevated, particularly given the recent turbulence around AI-related trades.
The geopolitical backdrop is much the same as before. Fresh diplomatic efforts involving Iran have raised some hopes of de-escalation, while continued strikes on Saudi Arabia continue to keep oil supply risks front and centre.
A more circumspect approach would not be surprising in European trading today. The focus shifts to the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions tomorrow, followed by the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. That is before considering the earnings calendar, with Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon all due to put the debate over AI spending back in the spotlight.
For direction today, bond yields, oil prices and the general risk mood may offer the clearest clues. With no major economic catalyst to anchor on, any significant moves could owe more to pre-event positioning than to solid conviction.
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Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 rating, easing bond market tension, but Treasury yields remain near 5% and the France-Germany spread holds above 150 bps.
South Korea's Q3 GDP rose 1.0%, beating forecasts, on AI chip export strength, but private consumption fell for the first time in nearly four years.
September industrial profits in China rose 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in August; nine-month growth eased to 15.5%.
Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi said a Fed hike this week would be a mistake, saying market yields already tighten and rate moves cannot fix oil shocks.