Saifedean Ammous: Bitcoin's Volatility Decline Is the Most Bullish Sign

Published by Bitcoin Magazine.

The most bullish indicator for Bitcoin right now, according to Saifedean Ammous, is its falling volatility. This cycle, bear-market drawdowns have decreased from about 87% to 77% and then to approximately 54%, bringing Bitcoin closer to becoming an investable asset for institutional money managers. Ammous explains that the halving remains the key driver of Bitcoin's four-year cycle and that fewer traders are using leverage at cycle tops. He also talks about how markets might eventually remove these cycles through arbitrage.

The video is divided into chapters covering various topics: at 0:00, Tether, Bitcoin and the Dollar Milkshake Theory; at 1:45, how the US carries $40 trillion in debt as the world's reserve currency; at 4:21, treasury yields hitting multi-decade highs and the bond market bear case; at 7:00, war spending, Iran and the collapse of fiscal hope; at 9:20, stablecoins versus banks and the hidden Treasury rollover risk; at 15:11, the longest hash rate bear market in Bitcoin history; at 18:47, why miners are pivoting to AI data centers; at 21:31, the halving, Bitcoin cycles and shrinking drawdowns; at 25:56, MicroStrategy, Strive and Bitcoin treasury companies; at 29:07, the humble peasant theory of high finance.

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