Seven Wall Street Firms Lower Coinbase Targets After Q3 Print

After a weak start to the fourth quarter, seven Wall Street firms lowered their Coinbase (COIN) price targets on Friday. Trading fees came to only about $165 million through October 25, and the stock was off 6% at $150.75 before the opening bell.

The forecast downgrades reflect reduced crypto trading activity, the main source of Coinbase's revenue since it charges fees on each transaction.

Why Does $165 Million in 25 Days Put Banks on Edge?

A price target reflects where an analyst expects a stock to trade 12 months out. Trading fees supplied nearly half of Coinbase's $1.22 billion third-quarter revenue, so a slower fee pace trims the profit estimates supporting those targets.

“Transaction revenue through October 25th is approximately $165 million,” Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said on Thursday's call.

Barclays set the lowest number, trimming to $120 from $149 — 25% beneath Thursday's $160.59 close.

Mizuho moved to $145 from $155 and is projecting roughly $607 million in transaction revenue for Q4. That is modestly higher than Q3's $590 million but 11% below the $684 million consensus in place before the numbers came out.

Wells Fargo cut its target to $174 from $200, Compass Point to $165 from $187, Needham to $197 from $205, and Canaccord to $275 from $300. Jefferies lowered its target to $174 from $183, citing the expense outlook, while Mizuho pointed to retail traders shifting to Robinhood.

Coinbase's Q3 fee figure was already down 44% year over year, according to its quarterly filing with US regulators.

COIN shareholders, already down 51% over the past year, now face reduced targets one day after the company reported a $718.7 million headline profit that was driven mainly by paper gains.

Why October's Weak Start Might Not Determine the Quarter

Early-quarter readings have fallen short before. In July, Coinbase had reported roughly $130 million in transaction revenue through July 26, according to its Q2 deck, and the quarter ultimately closed at $590 million.

Haas also said September brought improved trading conditions. Coinbase cut its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to a range of $4.15 billion to $4.3 billion, a move Mizuho viewed as positive.

Profit, however, still depends on token prices. Operating income fell to $61.7 million from $480.5 million, while a $715 million unrealized crypto gain accounted for most of net income.

Prediction markets, where users trade contracts on the outcome of events, passed $200 million in annualized revenue. Average holdings of USDC, a dollar-pegged digital token, hit a record $22 billion on the exchange.

What's Next for COIN Investors?

The target cuts landed alongside a slide in crypto stocks that followed the $6.3 billion Binance hack, a loss Binance itself disclosed. The exchange said it expected withdrawals to resume within 48 hours.

CEO Brian Armstrong, co-founder Fred Ehrsam, and President Emilie Choi have pre-arranged share sales that can begin November 16, covering up to 13.6 million shares total.

*COINBASE (COIN) CEO BRIAN ARMSTRONG ADOPTS 10B5-1 PLAN TO SELL UP TO 8.17M SHARES (~$1.31B) THROUGH OCT 2027

*COINBASE (COIN) INSIDERS EHRSAM, COO CHOI ALSO ENTER 10B5-1 SHARE SALE PLANS FOR UP TO 3.87M AND 1.56M SHARES$COIN

— tradfi news (@tradfi) October 29, 2026

TipRanks data still put the average price objective from 30 analysts at $207.61, with 19 Buy ratings and two Sell ratings. The lowest target in that group is $100.