Silver recovers some ground as crude retreats; US CPI data in view for possible bounce

The precious metal faced renewed selling on Monday as crude oil advanced to new weekly peaks. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stayed steady, with the Iran-US talks deadlocked and Houthi raids on Saudi Arabia ongoing.

That environment is expected to cap silver's gains unless the Federal Reserve shifts to a softer policy, which could push real yields and the dollar down.

Going forward, the US-Iran talks will stay under scrutiny, but Wednesday's US CPI release could act as a key driver if the figures diverge from forecasts.

If core CPI comes in above estimates, it would raise the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in October, adding to the pressure on silver. On the flip side, a weak reading might offer temporary backing for the metal, though it would not alter the broader outlook for now.

Silver Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, silver is consolidating near the lows. A descending trendline can serve as a barrier. Should the price retrace to that trendline, sellers are expected to apply pressure, with a calculated risk above, targeting a decline to 55.0. Conversely, buyers need a break above that trendline to strengthen their positions and aim for 71.55.

Silver Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

On the four-hour chart, silver recently moved past a minor descending trendline that had shaped the bearish trend on this timeframe. That suggests a slowdown in downward speed and may signal a larger retracement. A solid resistance zone lies near 62.00. If the price reaches that area, sellers are likely to intervene, with a risk above the zone, aiming to push it down to 55.00. Buyers, meanwhile, want a continued climb to challenge the major descending trendline.

Silver Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

On the one-hour chart, a rally to resistance that creates a new high could establish a minor ascending trendline (dotted). If the price then bounces off the resistance and drops back to that trendline, buyers are expected to hold it, with risk below, aiming to push to new highs. Sellers, conversely, want a breakdown to extend bearish moves toward 55.00. The red lines indicate today's average daily range.

Upcoming Catalysts

Wednesday's US CPI report is due. Then on Thursday, the US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims data will be released.