Solana trades near trendline as Alpenglow and US-Iran talks drive focus

Fundamental factors in focus

Alpenglow, Solana's key consensus upgrade, launched on its public testnet on September 24 and on devnet on September 25. It replaces TowerBFT with the new Votor mechanism. The upgrade aims to cut finality from about 12.8 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds. The phased rollout marks one of the biggest protocol upgrades in Solana's history.

Going forward, testnet performance and bugs will be tracked. A smooth test run would bolster the upgrade narrative, while snags could delay expectations. The pivotal moment remains the mainnet activation announcement, though no clear date has been set.

On the macroeconomic front, revived optimism over US-Iran negotiations has reduced earlier tensions. Both parties continue talks to modify Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under specific terms. The dispute now reportedly focuses on the sequencing of steps, not the plan's components.

Additionally, Fed's Williams provided support to the crypto market yesterday by stating he saw no urgency after the September hike and that one more hike was probable if the economy matched expectations. His remarks caused a dovish repricing, with the probability of an October rate hike dropping from 70% to 45%.

Going forward, attention stays largely on US-Iran developments. A breakthrough would benefit Solana in the near term, as aggressive Fed rate hike expectations would likely be scaled back. Conversely, a negative result or an extended deadlock will probably continue to suppress risk sentiment and the crypto market.

Daily chart perspective for Solana

Solana is consolidating near the 120.00 level. A major trendline defines the bullish structure. On a pullback, buyers are expected to lean on the trendline, with risk placed below it, aiming to push toward 149.00. Sellers, meanwhile, will seek a break lower to extend the pullback to 97.00 support.

Solana four-hour timeframe technical view

A minor trendline serves as support. Buyers are expected to continue leaning on it, with risk below, to push to new highs. Sellers will look for a break lower to enter for a drop to the major trendline near 108.00.

Solana one-hour timeframe technical analysis

A tight range exists between 117.00 and 121.00. Market participants are expected to continue trading the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Upcoming catalysts to watch

The US ADP and US PCE price index are due today. US ISM Manufacturing PMI and weekly Jobless Claims follow tomorrow. The week concludes with Friday's US NFP report. The primary focus, however, remains on US-Iran developments.