Taiwan to take 30% of Alaska LNG output, Trump says, sticking to cheaper oil call

Oil has stopped reacting to Trump's repeated price predictions. The market's own signal is visible in deferred contracts, with WTI and Brent strips for 2027 recently setting record highs, a sign traders are pricing in a sustained supply squeeze rather than a quick end. The Alaska agreements carry more weight for gas than crude. Asian buyers securing North American supply outside the Gulf strengthens the diversification argument, but the volumes remain years away and will not ease this winter's tight LNG market. A credible ceasefire would still cause a steep drop in crude, so headline risk works both ways, yet traders are likely to need concrete measures, not rhetoric, before they adjust their positions.

Trump has brought Asian capital to Alaska LNG, but his latest message of cheaper oil and a swift conclusion to the Iran war reaches a market that has heard it all before, time and again.

In summary:

• According to Trump, Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the Alaska LNG pipeline's gas and invest about $4.4 billion, in addition to South Korea's $50 billion commitment.
• Speaking at an Alaska rally, Trump said all required permits for the project have been issued and that two deals are to be announced.
• Trump forecast that oil prices would decline soon and energy prices would fall sharply when the Iran war ends, which he said will happen very soon.
• He stated that Iran will not be allowed nuclear weapons and that more oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz now than before the war.
• Brent finished Tuesday near $106 as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia ramped up, and the president has repeated such forecasts often during the war.

President Donald Trump said Taiwan has agreed to take a 30% share of the gas from the Alaska LNG pipeline and to invest about $4.4 billion in it, while reiterating his expectation that oil prices would soon decline and the war with Iran would come to a quick end.

At a rally in Alaska, Trump told the audience that all necessary permits for the project had been granted and that two deals would be unveiled. Taiwan's commitment adds to the $50 billion South Korea has pledged to invest, giving the long-planned project strong backing from Asian energy importers seeking to diversify their supply.

Trump went on to say that energy prices would fall steeply the moment the war ends, and that Iran would be barred from having nuclear weapons. He also claimed the Strait of Hormuz is now shipping more oil than before the conflict.

Taken at face value, the comments are encouraging, but the market is likely to respond warily. Throughout the conflict, Trump has repeatedly predicted a quick end to the war and falling oil prices, and neither has happened so far. Tuesday saw Brent close around $106 a barrel as the conflict expanded, with Yemen's Houthis increasing missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and loud blasts reported near Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters.

His assertion about Hormuz is also rosier than certain outside assessments. Morgan Stanley recently noted that Persian Gulf crude exports had bounced back to within 10% of prewar levels, a solid recovery, but still below prewar volumes.

There is more long-term significance in the Alaska agreements. Locking in cornerstone customers and capital from Taiwan and South Korea strengthens the commercial case for a project meant to send Alaskan gas to Asia and reduce reliance on Gulf supply routes. However, a pipeline and export project of this scale would take years to deliver gas, providing no immediate relief to current market tightness.

The question for oil traders is whether the Iran conflict edges toward a definite settlement. Until that happens, the market will probably continue to price the possibility of more disruption rather than the prospect of a speedy conclusion.