Tech stocks slide as Amazon and Intel results disappoint; oil gains despite peace talk

Technology names are under fresh pressure as the North American session approaches on Friday. Weak results from Amazon and a sharply negative reaction to Intel's numbers are amplifying worries about spending, profitability and expectations tied to the AI trade.

The pressure is centered on tech: Nasdaq futures are 785 points lower and S&P futures have given back 84 points, while Dow futures are up just 15 points. The split is telling. Tech is the weak spot; the Dow is holding up better.

Elsewhere, the dollar is broadly softer and Treasury yields are sliding across the curve. Oil, though, is climbing even as the president makes optimistic remarks about the Iran war ending. That mix leaves traders weighing muted tech sentiment against an energy market still flashing concern.

Amazon and Intel pile more weight onto the technology selloff

Amazon came up short on both profit and sales. Intel topped adjusted EPS forecasts while falling short on revenue, and its shares are taking a far heavier hit.

For investors, the core question persists: can earnings and future cash flows support the spending and valuations attached to AI?

Coming in ahead on earnings by itself is no assurance of a positive stock response. Guidance, margins, capital spending and the amount of good news already priced into the shares all feed into investor judgment. Sandisk's drop even after beating both provided estimates highlights that gap.

The earnings comparisons and early share reactions currently look like this:

• Intel: Adjusted EPS $0.52 versus $0.41 (BEAT); revenue $16.50 billion versus $16.60 billion (MISS). Shares are down 25.70%.

• Amazon: EPS $1.89 versus $1.97 (MISS); revenue $201.90 billion versus $202.20 billion (MISS). Shares are down 6.68%.

• Gilead Sciences: Adjusted EPS $2.55 versus $2.19 (BEAT); revenue $8.30 billion versus $7.80 billion (BEAT). Shares are up 4.41%.

• Sandisk: Adjusted EPS $49.51 versus $46.20 (BEAT); revenue $11.031 billion versus $10.639 billion (BEAT). Shares are down 8.20%.

• Starbucks: Adjusted EPS $0.80 versus $0.72 (BEAT); revenue $9.10 billion versus $9.22 billion (MISS). Shares are up 0.30%.

• Pinterest: Revenue $1.17 billion versus $1.21 billion (MISS). Shares are down 8.18%.

Futures on U.S. stock indexes:

• Dow industrial average futures: plus 15 points.

• S&P 500 futures: minus 84 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: minus 785 points.

ECB officials signal more hikes remain possible after yesterday's hold

A day after the ECB held rates steady, its policymakers are stressing that the fight against inflation is not over. They share a readiness to tighten further, though they differ on the timing of action and on how much tightening markets are already delivering.

Martin Kocher: a warning with conditions attached

Kocher indicated that inflation risks have risen markedly and that a policy response will be necessary if conditions fail to improve quickly. His remarks imply little tolerance for stubborn inflation, while acknowledging the dangers of acting too early.

Traders should not read the unchanged decision from yesterday as confidence that inflation is under control.

Fabio Panetta: more hikes possible, but bond yields are important

Panetta said further rate increases might be needed and warned that core inflation could become more pronounced early next year. He also stressed that the ECB must consider the recent rise in long-term bond yields when calibrating policy.

Rising market borrowing costs can restrain demand even without another ECB move. Panetta also left room to adjust policy quickly should global conditions improve or financial tensions bring inflation down.

The message is conditional: more tightening remains a possibility, but the ECB must judge how much restraint is already working through the economy.

Joachim Nagel: ready to step in, with few second-round effects for now

Nagel said officials were ready to move decisively if necessary, while noting that meaningful second-round effects have not emerged so far.

The distinction is important. A shock to energy prices can push overall inflation up right away. The larger risk is that companies and employees react in a way that locks elevated inflation into the wider price and wage structure.

Putting the ECB comments together: staying on hold keeps options open, but another increase is not off the table. Stubborn core inflation would boost the argument for moving; higher long-term yields and a better energy backdrop could make additional action less necessary.

Trump promotes a quick end to the Iran war, yet oil climbs and stocks fall ahead of next week's election

In an interview this morning, President Trump said the Iran war would end very soon, “one way or another,” and predicted gasoline prices would fall.

Separately, he wrote on Truth Social that inflation is way down under his administration and that incomes for people and companies are higher. Those are the president's own claims; traders will keep judging the inflation outlook through incoming data and energy prices.

An Al Arabiya report citing sources says the U.S. has told mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is the basis for negotiations. Mediators are reportedly discussing access for inspectors to Iran's nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds.

That points to diplomatic discussions, but it does not constitute an agreement. For markets, the gap between discussing terms and securing an enforceable settlement remains important.

For now, crude is moving opposite to the price relief the president anticipates. WTI trades at $104.13, up $2.13 or 2.09%. The price action suggests traders still need evidence that the supply and security outlook is improving.

Dollar slips against most major currencies

The dollar has lost ground to six of the seven major currencies in the latest reading; the Australian dollar is unchanged.

Leading the move against the dollar is the Swiss franc, with the Japanese yen and British pound next. The Australian dollar is the group's laggard, holding flat.

• EUR/USD: 1.1194, up 0.14%.

• USD/JPY: 157.03, down 0.42%.

• GBP/USD: 1.3426, up 0.38%.

• USD/CHF: 0.8205, down 0.45%.

• USD/CAD: 1.3956, down 0.23%.

• AUD/USD: 0.7027, unchanged.

• NZD/USD: 0.5645, up 0.21%.

Strength in the franc and yen fits a defensive posture, but the dollar's wider slide indicates the moves go beyond the usual havens.

Currency ranges: USD/JPY tests the low end

Session ranges, measured from low to high, are as follows:

• EUR/USD: 1.1174–1.1214, 40 pips. One-month average: 67 pips.

• USD/JPY: 157.00–157.89, 89 pips. One-month average: 72 pips.

• GBP/USD: 1.3375–1.3433, 58 pips. One-month average: 84 pips.

• USD/CHF: 0.8195–0.8247, 52 pips. One-month average: 52 pips as well.

• USD/CAD: 1.3951–1.3992, 41 pips. One-month average: 63 pips.

• AUD/USD: 0.7018–0.7043, 25 pips. One-month average: 43 pips.

• NZD/USD: 0.5625–0.5651, 26 pips. One-month average: 44 pips.

USD/JPY sits just above its low for the session, while GBP/USD is close to its high. Those points make the extremes immediate markers to watch for a continuation or a failed breakout.

Treasury yields decline, led by intermediate maturities

Yields are down at every point on the U.S. curve, with the five-year off about 10 basis points. A cooling economy will have that effect.

• 2-year: 4.5689%, down 8.71 basis points.

• 5-year: 4.7021%, down 9.99 basis points.

• 10-year: 4.9083%, down 8.07 basis points.

• 30-year: 5.2815%, down 4.75 basis points.

Cheaper Treasury yields can give equity values some lift, yet tech is drowning out that support as earnings hit. Currencies are also in the picture: softer U.S. yields dovetail with the dollar's weaker tone.

Europe's 10-year borrowing costs are split: Germany 3.327%, France 4.951%, the UK 5.276%, Spain 3.950% and Italy 4.495%. The only one moving up is France, while the rest are down.

European shares broadly in the red

• Germany's DAX: 25,838.35, down 0.77%.

• France's CAC 40: 7,969.03, down 0.01%.

• UK's FTSE 100: 10,734.24, up 0.11%.

• Spain's IBEX: 18,750.20, down 0.57%.

• Euro Stoxx 50: 18,692.19, down 0.88%.

• Italy's FTSE MIB: 49,463.93, down 1.08%.

Oil climbs while metals and Bitcoin retreat

The commodities snapshot shows a clear split between energy and metals. Gold has slipped back below $4000. Bitcoin is under $80000.

• WTI crude oil: $104.13, up $2.13 or 2.09%.

• Spot gold: $3,967.94, down roughly $52.63 or 1.31%.

• Silver: $50.2332, down 3.66%.

• Copper: $6.5170, down 1.29%.

• Bitcoin: $77,335, down $458 or 0.59%.

The fact that gold is falling even as Treasury yields and the dollar move in its favor is a reminder that no one market relationship can be trusted on its own. Price action itself remains the final judge.

North American calendar: labor costs and Canadian GDP

These are the day's key scheduled data points:

• 8:30 AM ET — U.S. Employment Cost Index, Q3 — Forecast: +0.8% q/q — Previous: +0.9%.

• 8:30 AM ET — Canadian GDP, August — Forecast: +0.2% m/m — Previous: 0.0%.

• 9:45 AM ET — Chicago PMI, October — Previous: 58.8.

Of the three, the Employment Cost Index matters most for the debate over persistent inflation. A high print would signal pay pressure is holding up; a low one would ease concern about labor costs. Canada's GDP data will be the next domestic growth gauge for the Canadian dollar.

October's last trading session is today. Between earnings, data and geopolitics, month-end flows could add to intraday volatility.