Tech's Half of the S&P 500 Cuts Its Economic Link, DataTrek's Colas Says
Nick Colas of DataTrek says tech is about 50% of the S&P 500, weakening the index as an economic proxy. He recommends the equal-weight S&P 500 and homebuilders.
Meta, Tesla, SpaceX and Netflix are set to report quarterly results this week, with AI spending and outlooks in focus.
Tuesday and Wednesday, once US trading wraps up, bring quarterly numbers from Meta, Tesla, Netflix and SpaceX. The combined value of the first three, according to Nasdaq, is about $3.6 trillion.
Recently, guidance rather than earnings beats has been the driver for these shares. Netflix, in July, edged past profit forecasts by a cent and then sank around 9% in extended trading as its outlook turned weaker.
Meta's own results detail a plan for $130 billion to $145 billion in equipment and data center spending during 2026.
After deploying $31.1 billion in the second quarter, Meta ended up with only $784 million in free cash flow — the cash remaining once investment is done. The stock slid more than 7% after hours, with profit also short of forecasts.
Meta is also bracing for a legal charge of about $10 billion in the current quarter. It comes out of a settlement that could reach $18 billion over allegations its apps harmed children.
SpaceX, according to its filing, spent $18.4 billion in the second quarter — $15.8 billion of which went to AI — and recorded a $541 million loss.
Still, Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said the AI business earned $1.1 billion on an adjusted basis.
A large part of that cash flows toward chipmaker Nvidia. There are reports SpaceX is now seeking $40 billion in debt to finance chip purchases.
Tesla has already topped delivery projections, handing over 486,532 cars. In July, however, it posted $0.33 a share against a forecast $0.55, as margins weakened.
For Meta, the key test is whether that $130 billion-$145 billion spending range moves up.
SpaceX will be judged on how it advances toward the target Elon Musk set in August. ARR, short for annual recurring revenue, tracks the yearly pace of sales.
“we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year,” Elon Musk stated.
For Tesla, the question is margin recovery. Nasdaq-tracked analysts expect $0.21 per share, versus $0.37 a year ago.
Netflix's challenge is different. Its shareholder letter points to $12.86 billion in revenue and about $3 billion in 2026 ad sales.
Strong bank results did not lift bank shares last week, a disconnect Jim Cramer pointed out. The AI spenders now face that same test this week.
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Nick Colas of DataTrek says tech is about 50% of the S&P 500, weakening the index as an economic proxy. He recommends the equal-weight S&P 500 and homebuilders.
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