Trump Indicates Iran Strike Could Come Sunday; Bitcoin Trades Near $80,000

President Donald Trump stated that a strike on Iran might occur as early as Sunday, or alternatively a deal could be reached. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at $80,546, having briefly fallen under $80,000 on Saturday.

If a strike occurs or a deal materializes, how might Bitcoin react? Historical events could provide insights.

What Past Iran Headlines Show

On October 8, Trump committed to delaying strikes until after the November 3 midterm elections. Bitcoin fell to $80,393 that day but ended at $81,754, per TradingView data from Binance.

On October 22, a report emerged about US and Israeli strike plans after the midterms. Bitcoin dropped from an October 21 peak of $84,898 to $80,939, and closed at $81,416.

On the same day, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of $635.49 million, following inflows of $528.40 million the day before.

As speculation about a weekend strike intensified, Bitcoin dropped to $79,220 on Saturday before recovering to $80,888 at the close. Escalation headlines led to intraday drops of 2% to 5%, while the pledge did not trigger a sustained rally.

Leveraged Longs Took the Hit Near $80,000

CoinGlass data indicates $543.68 million in liquidations during a 24-hour period, with long positions contributing $461.19 million.

The $80,000 threshold is significant for institutions. Glassnode estimates the cost basis for ETF and treasury-company investors falls between $80,000 and $81,500.

The firm notes that a daily close under $80,000 would put the average holder in a loss position. It could also expose the True Market Mean, currently near $77,600.

A strike over the weekend could rapidly test that level.

What a Strike Could Mean When Markets Reopen

Since Bitcoin trades through the weekend, it would likely absorb the first reaction to any strike.

Historical strikes provide mixed signals. The war that began on February 28 saw Bitcoin fall to $63,030 before closing at $66,973. After strikes in early September, Bitcoin dipped to $76,264, then surged 5.08% on September 3.

Gold may also face pressure when traditional markets reopen. Glassnode data indicates that Bitcoin's correlation with gold hit an eight-year high in September and remains close to that level.

Bitcoin's correlation with the dollar is among its most negative, so a flight to the dollar could pressure both assets.

Oil introduces inflation risk, with Brent crude at $117.30 on Friday. A strike could drive oil higher before the Fed's decision on October 28.

A deal might ease those concerns, though the October 8 pledge demonstrated that relief is often limited. Therefore, Bitcoin's reaction to these headlines is the key indicator to monitor this weekend.