Trump's approval rating hits record low as Republicans face midterm slump

With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, Republicans have little time left to reverse the trend.

Trump has become more of a burden for his party as his approval rating falls to a record low of 31%. The rating has been worsening, with a notable downturn after the March conflict in Iran.

The broader polling picture is even more concerning:

• On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats hold a 47% to 35% lead over Republicans.
• That 12-point margin is the widest seen in this election cycle, per Reuters/Ipsos.

While the generic ballot does not directly convert to seats, the 12-point gap is troubling for Republicans. Should it persist until election day, it suggests a contentious final two years for Trump's presidency, marked by investigations into Epstein, the Iran war, and corruption.

Markets have probably already factored in Democratic control of the House, but a severe defeat could trigger a wider rejection of Trump, including from his own party. Such an outcome might boost efforts for peace in the Middle East and a resolution to the trade war. Meanwhile, being under constant investigation could make Trump more impulsive and combative.

How Trump reacts to falling poll numbers and manages his legacy is also uncertain. Will it prompt a more conciliatory stance focused on economic achievements, or a stronger push on his least popular policies? Does he want to be remembered as the president who initiated an endless war with Iran?

One should be cautious about viewing this as a direct signal for the dollar or equity markets. The more relevant point is that the possibility of a constrained White House is increasingly difficult to overlook as the election approaches.

The survey was conducted over four days, concluding today.