Trump sees no rush to strike Iran while Netanyahu signals action within days

Crude prices could shed some of their support on Trump's comments, since they lower the odds of a near-term escalation led by Washington — something markets had started to price in once Netanyahu began dropping hints. The relief will probably be modest, though: the risk premium in oil sits on the Strait of Hormuz, and supply risk there stays alive thanks to Iranian attacks, the US blockade of Iranian ports and Monday's limited US strikes. What matters more for oil is whether the Qatari-mediated talks yield a Hormuz deal, which would do far more to ease shipping risk than any one remark out of Washington. A split between Trump and Netanyahu also keeps alive the possibility of Israeli action without full US backing — a scenario that would probably send prices sharply higher.

If strikes are being planned, Trump is giving little away about them.

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Escalation with Iran is not something Trump is rushing towards; Netanyahu is, and oil markets will be watching to see which of the two sets the pace.

Summary:

• According to the FT, Trump said the US has no plan to strike Iran right away
• He said it looked as though the US was getting everything it wanted from the stand-off
• Asked about Netanyahu's hints of an attack this week, he said the US was ready, though there might be no need
• AP reported that Netanyahu has been pushing for fresh strikes once the US midterms are over
• On Monday, US forces mounted limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz without announcing them
• Talks mediated by Qatar on a framework covering Hormuz and the port blockade carry on this week

According to the Financial Times, US President Donald Trump said there is no plan in place to strike Iran at present. He gave the impression of being at ease with the stand-off as it stands, even while Israel's prime minister signals military action in the coming days.

In Trump's telling, Washington seemed to be getting all it wanted out of the situation. Asked about the firm hints from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that an attack could land within days, Trump answered that the US was completely prepared to act if required, but that there might be no reason to do so.

What he said suggests daylight between Washington and Israel. Officials cited by the Associated Press say Netanyahu has been urging Trump to order a fresh wave of strikes after the US midterm elections, which fall on Tuesday. In their account, a return to full-scale war might help Netanyahu piece together a governing coalition, having lost his parliamentary majority along with his allies. Trump made no commitment to strikes during a weekend call with Netanyahu.

None of that means US military activity has come to a halt. The AP reported that on Monday US forces launched limited strikes against Iranians who had fired missiles at American forces in the Strait of Hormuz. Explosions on islands in the strait and close to the port of Bandar Abbas were reported by Iranian state media. The operation was not announced publicly by the US.

Diplomatic efforts are running in parallel. Last week Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials, and further rounds are set for this week. One framework under discussion would have Iran halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in return for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran is seeking guarantees that Washington would honour any agreement.

Fighting broke out on 28 February, when strikes by the US and Israel killed Iran's supreme leader at the time. His successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly ordered his forces to answer any threat with no geographic limits. Such a posture keeps the risk of escalation elevated, whatever Washington intends at the moment.