US strikes at Iranian oil tankers mark escalation in Hormuz deterrence strategy

Tuesday's strikes, which hit roughly 100 targets such as radar systems, mine-laying equipment and anti-ship missile launchers, reflect a deliberate US attempt to reduce Iran's capacity to menace shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for a prolonged period. One official indicated that the threat level for commercial vessels would be lower for at least a month. That interpretation, together with the fact that some 40 ships crossed the strait safely on the day of the strikes, is expected to reinforce the view that near-term supply disruption risk has diminished, even though the broader conflict continues. The tanker-for-tanker policy represents an escalation in US engagement rules that traders need to monitor, as it creates a new, more direct retaliatory mechanism linked specifically to attacks on ships. Iran's missile and drone response, much of which was intercepted, together with disputed casualty reports from a strike in Kuhestak, introduces an information risk that could still affect market sentiment depending on how the story evolves.

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Earlier:

• CENTCOM says it struck Iranian air defence and navy sites after a mine-laying attempt in Hormuz

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The US has demonstrated to Iran that any attack on tankers will now result in the loss of Iranian tankers.

Summary:

• For the first time, US forces hit two Iranian government-owned tankers, under a tanker-for-tanker policy authorised by President Trump to deter shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by Axios
• Tuesday's strikes hit roughly 100 targets, among them IRGC air defence positions, radar installations, mine-laying systems, communications nodes, anti-ship cruise missile launchers and attack drone launchers
• US drones struck the engine rooms of the anchored tankers with missiles; the ships were located north of the US naval blockade line
• Iran's response was largely unsuccessful: around half of the 25 ballistic missiles reached Jordanian airspace, most drones targeting US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted, and two drones aimed at a base in Erbil were also shot down
• A US official stated that the strikes had degraded Iran's ability to attack and had secured at least a month of reduced threat levels for commercial vessels
• Around 40 vessels passed through the strait on Tuesday during the exchange of fire, and US forces intercepted several anti-ship missiles and drones targeting them
• According to Iranian state media, a US strike hit a wedding in Kuhestak, killing at least four and wounding 35, a claim that CENTCOM's spokesman denied
• A US official said that Iran no longer controls the Strait of Hormuz or the wider conflict

For the first time, the United States hit Iranian government tankers on Tuesday, a move that signals a new phase in its response to Iranian assaults on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios. US officials said the strikes were conducted under a recently approved tanker-for-tanker policy, personally greenlit by President Trump, intended to further dissuade Iranian attacks on ships transiting the strait. In contrast to previous strikes that focused on stopping Iran from breaching the US naval blockade, Tuesday's assault on the two anchored tankers was openly retaliatory, a change that officials described as notable.

The tankers were moored off Iran's coast, north of the blockade line, when US drones fired missiles that hit their engine rooms. These vessels were part of roughly 100 targets struck during the day's operation, which also comprised Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps air defence positions, radar installations, mine-laying equipment, communication networks, anti-ship cruise missile launchers and attack drone launchers. Officials said the broader campaign aimed as well to stop Iran from regaining the radar and missile systems it needs to threaten ships crossing the strait, a plan that Axios reported had been considered by Trump and his senior aides in preceding days. One official described the goal as lowering the risk to oil tankers, US Navy ships and Air Force planes, characterising the approach as an ongoing effort to contain Iran's capabilities.

Iran's retaliation fell considerably short of what it appeared to intend. Of the roughly 25 ballistic missiles launched, around half reached Jordanian airspace, with ten intercepted and three landing without causing harm. A second wave of two dozen drones aimed at US bases in Bahrain was largely intercepted, and two drones targeting a US base in Erbil in Iraq's Kurdistan region were also shot down. Iran additionally fired ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait. Throughout the exchange, American forces continued to guide commercial vessels through the strait, with some 40 ships entering and exiting on the day, carrying millions of barrels of oil. US forces intercepted several anti-ship cruise missiles and drones that the IRGC fired at those vessels, and none were struck.

A disagreement over civilian casualties added another layer of tension. Iranian state media reported a US strike struck a wedding in Kuhestak, killing at least four and wounding 35. CENTCOM spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins said the US military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC, and noted that the report came from Iranian state media. A US official portrayed the day's events as a clear loss for Tehran, arguing that Iran has lost control of both the Strait of Hormuz and the broader conflict, and added that the coming days would test whether the tanker-for-tanker policy succeeds in changing Iran's calculations regarding further attacks on shipping.