Strong factory output and weak retail sales give BoJ mixed economic signals
Japan factory output surged 2.2% in September, surpassing forecasts. Retail sales fell 0.7%, missing targets, leaving the Bank of Japan with mixed signals.
The US Treasury sold $44 billion in 7-year notes at 4.894%, matching the WI yield, receiving a B- grade with strong direct demand.
The auction was assigned a grade of B−.
On the whole, the sale was slightly above average. The high yield matched the when-issued level, so no tail appeared—a change from the usual modest tail. The bid-to-cover was a touch below average. Among bidders, direct participation was stronger, making up for weaker indirect demand. Directs took 8.62 percentage points more than their norm, while indirects fell short by 5.93 percentage points. Dealers ended up with 9.41%, below the 12.1% average, which points to solid end-investor appetite. The lack of a tail and the smaller dealer share give the auction a mildly positive feel, though the lower bid-to-cover and softer indirect participation keep the grade in check.
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Japan factory output surged 2.2% in September, surpassing forecasts. Retail sales fell 0.7%, missing targets, leaving the Bank of Japan with mixed signals.
Tokyo's October CPI came in at 2.8%, beating the 2.7% forecast. September unemployment fell to 2.4% and jobs ratio rose to 1.19.
Deutsche Bank predicts a final ECB rate hike in December as energy costs may sustain inflation.
Natixis expects the RBA to hike again on 3 November after hot September CPI data showed energy and travel price pressures.