USDCAD buyers defend 200-hour MA, pushing back above 100-hour level

The USDCAD has been trending higher since finding a floor near 1.3759 on September 8. Monday's rally topped out at 1.42928, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the early February 2025 peak.

Sellers used that resistance to define their risk and drove the price lower.

The corrective move accelerated on Tuesday once the price tested and broke below the rising 100-hour moving average. That breakdown gave sellers additional reason to push toward the downside.

But buyers also had a level to defend.

After further declines, the pullback stalled near 1.4207 late Tuesday and during Wednesday's Asian-Pacific session, where the ascending 200-hour moving average held as support. Buyers stepped in at that level and have since lifted the price back above the 100-hour moving average, now at 1.42426. The pair is trading around 1.4250. The short-term bias leans bullish above that moving average.

Those technical levels have shaped the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Buyers have survived the correction. Can they capitalise on the bounce?

The 200-hour moving average bounce preserved the broader uptrend. Restoring the price above the 100-hour moving average strengthens the buyers' near-term position. They now need to maintain that level.

Sustained trade above 1.42426 shifts the next upside target to Monday's high and the 61.8% retracement at 1.42928. Clearing and holding above that resistance would pave the way for further gains.

On the other hand, a decisive break back below the 100-hour moving average would undermine the recovery and refocus attention on the rising 200-hour moving average, now at 1.42146 and climbing.

The successful defence of that level during the latest pullback has raised its significance. A breakdown below it would hand sellers greater control, with Friday's low at 1.4192 and the swing area near 1.4150 becoming the next downside targets.

Key technical levels

• 1.42928: Monday's high and the 61.8% retracement. The resistance buyers must break.

• 1.42426: The 100-hour moving average. The near-term gauge for buyers and sellers.

• 1.42146: The rising 200-hour moving average. Critical support after holding the latest correction.

• 1.4192: Friday's low.

• 1.4150: The next downside swing area.

This price action offers a useful trading lesson. Sellers leaned on retracement resistance. Buyers leaned on the 200-hour moving average. Both had a clear reference to define and limit risk: hold the level and seek a rotation; break it and reassess.

Between those extremes, the 100-hour moving average acts as the barometer. Above it, buyers keep the near-term edge. Below it, sellers get another chance to test support.