USDCAD buyers extend uptrend as key support holds firm

Last week, the question was whether the rally had reached its peak.

A video posted then examined if the USDCAD had already put in a high. The discussion focused on a swing zone between 1.41297 and 1.41488. From a low of 1.37588 on September 8 to a high near 1.41488 on September 24, buyers had covered significant ground quickly. That region appeared to be a logical spot for the advance to pause.

The challenge for sellers was driving the price below 1.41297 and holding it there. They could not manage it. The currency pair hovered around that zone on Friday, then began pushing higher on Monday. That upward move has extended into Tuesday, taking the USDCAD to its highest level since July 7.

Buyers hold the rising channel

On the hourly timeframe, the price pulled back from Tuesday's intraday peak of 1.4201 to 1.4175. That dip touched the lower boundary of a rising channel, where buyers stepped in. As long as the price remains above that trendline, buyers maintain firm control and the bullish trend is intact.

What would give sellers a chance?

A drop below the channel trendline would offer sellers some encouragement, but it would be just an initial move. They would still need to push beneath the 1.41297–1.41488 swing area and keep it there. If that occurs, a deeper pullback would likely follow, with the climbing 200-hour moving average at 1.40834 as the next target.

Where might buyers aim next?

Until sellers achieve that, upside remains the preferred direction. The next major target is a cluster of swing highs from late June and early July between 1.4238 and 1.4247. The upper boundary of the rising channel, which rises hourly, is another level to watch. Breaking above would give buyers even greater control.

Key technical levels

• 1.4238–1.4247: Next major swing-high resistance area

• 1.4201: Tuesday's intraday high

• 1.4175: Intraday low and test of the rising channel trendline

• 1.41297–1.41488: Swing area sellers must break and stay below

• 1.40834: Rising 200-hour moving average and potential target on a deeper correction

Trading lesson: Resistance needs confirmation

For newer traders, reaching resistance does not automatically signal a top. Last week, sellers had a zone to defend but could not keep the price below it. Buyers then drove to a new high.

The channel trendline now serves as the initial test of that buying. The swing area below it is the more significant test of whether the broader move is beginning to reverse.

In the video, the earlier question is revisited, showing how buyers defended the swing zone and outlining the levels that would keep them in charge—or give sellers a stronger argument for a pullback.