Weekly Close Key to Bitcoin's $100,000 Breakout

Bitcoin is trading near $84,000, its strongest position since January 2026. The question is whether the cryptocurrency can hold this level and push toward $100,000.

According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, the answer hinges on a single piece of data: Bitcoin’s weekly close. If that close lands above $82,000, the breakout could be confirmed. Falling back below that mark would suggest the move was another false start.

A weekly close filters out short-lived price spikes. Traders often see it as a stronger signal than what happens during a single volatile session.

Bitcoin’s Breakout Still Has One Big Test

Cowen believes a weekly close above the May highs, near $82,500, would give traders greater confidence that Bitcoin has genuinely entered a new bull market.

If the price drops back below that level, the breakout might turn out to be just a wick — a brief surge that quickly reversed.

Macroeconomic conditions are complicating the test. The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% on Wednesday, its highest in 19 years. 

At the same time, September’s flash PMI data came in well above economists’ forecasts.

Higher yields tend to make risk assets like Bitcoin less appealing.

“I’m trying to be less deterministic about these outcomes… For breakout traders, I think the weekly candle is worth watching closely for either confirmation of the breakout or a failed move back into the range, particularly with rates rising into a supply shock.”

Bitcoin Is Not Predictable Anymore

This caution is significant because Cowen recently acknowledged that his earlier prediction of an October cycle bottom no longer fits the market.

His current approach is less about forecasting Bitcoin’s next direction and more about pinpointing the level that will resolve the uncertainty.

Trader Michaël van de Poppe sees a similarly ambiguous situation. He thinks the recent correction may have ended, though another dip to $81,000 is still possible.

Asked myself the questions here, and if you're patient enough, the markets will provide you clear answers.#Bitcoin hasn't found enough strength yet.

That's okay.

If this goes lower and does a test of the previous high = great.

That's also an optimal entry point personally.… https://t.co/nZeuVpaOKG pic.twitter.com/Gq0S5MyH3W

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 24, 2026

The close this week could deliver the clearest signal yet on whether Bitcoin has truly broken out or simply teased another rally.