WGC Trims 2026 Gold Investment Forecast, Upgrades Central Bank Buying

The World Gold Council (WGC) now sees 2026 gold investment demand rising by about 200 tonnes, half the 400 tonnes it had projected earlier. The same report brought a more positive outlook for central bank purchases.

Taken together, the two changes suggest a shift in which side of the market is driving demand. The metal changed hands at $3,937.98 on Wednesday, 4.9% below where it stood a month earlier.

The Retail Gold Factor Behind the 2026 Forecast Cut

Through the second half, bar and coin buyers were less active, and the WGC's Q3 report incorporated that into the cut. The council continued to characterise demand from that group as relatively resilient.

In Q3, worldwide bar and coin demand was 268 tonnes, down 19% year on year and the weakest quarterly total in four years. US purchases fell to 8 tonnes, the lowest for any quarter since late 2019, while Indian demand was 40% lower than a year earlier.

The WGC listed a range-bound gold price, expectations that US rates would stay higher for longer and rallying equities as contributing factors.

Other investment channels performed better. China's bar and coin purchases hit a record 393 tonnes over the first nine months, while gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surpassed the council's projections with a record $31 billion of inflows in Q3.

Looking ahead, the WGC still sees gold investment demand — over-the-counter (OTC) trading included — as the sector most likely to drive growth in 2026.

“Investment should be supported by robust global gold ETF buying and resilient physical investment. Central banks are likely to remain significant buyers,” the council said.

Central Banks Cover the Shortfall, Much of It Unreported

With retail buyers pulling back, central banks bought more gold in Q3 than the WGC had expected. Their purchases totalled 321 tonnes, 42% higher than a year earlier, which brought the year-to-date figure to 675 tonnes.

The stronger activity led the WGC to raise its full-year forecast. Central bank buying is now expected to at least equal 2025 levels.

Reported purchases were 120 tonnes, which means the WGC estimates that roughly 63% of Q3 buying was not disclosed. The largest publicly reported purchases came from China at 63 tonnes and Poland at 40 tonnes.

Official demand also moves with price. The WGC has found a -0.7 correlation between central bank demand and gold's quarterly returns since Q3 2022; simply put, poorer returns have usually attracted more buying.

Such a pattern could provide some support to gold, the council said, but it cautioned that the relationship is too unstable to create a reliable price floor.

Gold's 4.9% fall over the past month provides a test of that pattern in Q4. For fund buyers, rates present a second test, one the WGC considers a headwind for investment.

On October 28, the Fed kept rates unchanged, while CME FedWatch pegs the probability of a December hike at 78.4%.